Conifex Timber Inc T.CFF

Alternate Symbol(s): CFXTF

Forest Products Lumber & Wood Production

Conifex Timber Inc. is a Canada-based forest products company, which operates fiber baskets in North America, northern British Columbia. The Company produces lumber products and renewable energy from its sawmill and bioenergy plant in Mackenzie, British Columbia. Its lumber products are sold in the United States, Canadian and Japanese markets. It also produces bioenergy at its power generation facility at Mackenzie, British Columbia. Its lumber products include J-GRADE, 2 AND BETTER, SELECT, STUDS, ECONOMY and 3. The Company operates a two-line sawmill in Mackenzie, British Columbia (the Mackenzie Mill). Its Mackenzie Mill has approximately 240 million board feet of annual lumber capacity on a two-shift basis. It operates a 36-megawatt biomass power generation plant in Mackenzie, British Columbia (the Power Plant), located at the site of its Mackenzie Mill. Its Power Plant's output capacity is in excess of 230 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity per year.

TSX:CFF - Post by User

Conifex Timber Inc

Bullboard Posts

Post by dosperroson Jan 15, 2017 12:32pm

316 Views

Post# 25710040

CFF and the Lumber Agreeement

It should be wild. Here's my thoughts from the TMB board.

dosperros wrote: We're seeing the big money move to the sidelines. Most have their positions and will wait until news of a strong Q1.

This means the volume drop-off will persist. The bid-ask spread will be big. There is just not that much action; which means I'm confident in saying the range next week will be between 1.50 and 3.00.

Without news it's a mugs game trying to day trade this thing. Smart money takes a position and waits until the Street's view ($30M a quarter. Wow. Off much?)

Anyway, good luck carving out a position. Keep in mind the SLA downside is baked into the price. If we get a "good deal" to prop up USA housing (a big win for Donald to prevent 500,000 Americans annually from being precluded from home ownership due to expensive wood) then you will see s**t get real, and fast. Let's say there's a good deal. Here's what happens next:

~5% spike for WEF. 100% spike in the discussion board volme about how the market is "rigged". Hirt feelings reports all around.

~10% spikes: Canfor, West Fraser

~15% spikes IFP (the market loves these guys and it's any excuse to pile on)

~20-30% spikes TMB (As I noted before, even if TMB can claw out an extra 5% lumber margin is huge and attainable. Mostly becuase they are used to having effectively 0% margin there and using the sawmills to ensure fibre supply for the pulp mills. Adding 5% is worth $20M which is worth 60cents a share thus my estimation of a conservative 60cents or 30%).

50% spike for Conifex. Their ship will come in. Caution though it's even more thinly traded than TMB; that trading day will be gong show. They live and die by the SLA.

RFP? No idea how it will respond. I really am worried about that play, but I've only spent a few hours looking into reports and research there.