OTCPK:TMBMF - Post by User
Post by
dosperroson Feb 06, 2017 11:53am
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Post# 25804710
Next quarter TMB may outearn RFP. RFP's value is 1.83x TMB
Next quarter TMB may outearn RFP. RFP's value is 1.83x TMBSo Resolute is the "bigger" player but they are the gang that can't shoot straight. Thieir mis-management is really nailing them, whereas TMB's mgmt is doing a great job,
The premise that TMB can outearn is nothing new. TMB will be outearning a lot of billion-dollar (or close to) companies like Canfor Pulp and Western Forest. But RFP is key as they are similar integreated Eastern plays, so they will be directly compared.
Keep in mind that RFP's asset base is many times larger than TMB too.
I'm basing this on my expectation that TMB will be mid-60's in EBITDA for the next quarter. I'm guessing $66M. RFP just came in at $67M, but is fading fast.
So based on the RFP back of napkin for earnings and stability, let's assume that TMB will be $2.96*1.83 = $5.41/share sooner than later. I have more faith in mathematically calculating the fundamnetals but relative valuation helps sometimes too.