RE:Conservative targetHi Farmer,
Generally speaking, I would agree with your numbers. I have modelled out PTE for fiscal 2017, and have landed (approximately) in the same place. I take some comfort in the fact that PTE management have consistently indicated that they are confident in 50% growth year over year. This suggests to me that they are either (a) truly that confident, or (b) incredibly stupid. I'm going with option A, as this is not a management team (or company) that was just assembled yesterday. Additionally, the fact that PTE management owns so many shares and the ability of PTE (not Echelon) to expedite the exercise of the warrants on the recent private placment also bodes well.
My only concern is the rich multiple, and the fact that overall market sentiment can change on a whim. As long as current shareholders stay confident in the story (and PTE continues to deliver), then the multiple should hold. However, as they say - truth is stranger than fiction, and none of us can predict the future.
I am long on PTE.
Mike405