BoondoggleI find it hard to imagine what a huge boondoggle this whole deal has become. On the one hand, Eldorado is seeing their share price crash far more than the associated dilution would have warranted -- and Integra, which never got closer than 4% below the actual share price, is actually regressing back towards its old trading range. Right now the premium is only 10% above the record high (which Integra probably would have flirted with anyway in a few months or so). It's possible to imagine some really bad news from Greece hitting Eldorado, which could conceivably erase the premium completely.
At the same time, if the deal doesn't go through, ICG's management will be completely discredited. On the one hand, the potential of future resource expansion and buyout potential will be called into question; on the other, their competence and willingness to look out for their investors. ICG stock could go down substantially -- and another buyout could take place, far below what this current one was advertised as.
Best-case scenario: in the next couple of weeks GDXJ starts buying Eldorado stock, and it recovers into a range that makes the deal at least superficially respectable, like a 7 month wedding. Right now it just looks trashy.