RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:output per day overview
To say it's a bit confusing is an understatement. Here is my take:
1.) In Q4 2016, commercial prod. was to occur in Feb 2017 with an annual prod target of 75K oz.
2.) In Mar 2017, commercial prod was to occur in Apr 2017 with an annual target of 75K oz, but none as of that date
3.) In Apr 2017, commercial prod was to occur in Q3 2017, with an annual target of 75K - even though they only had produced the 1st 500 oz., with another 1,000 from old leach pad
4.) In May 2017 production reported as 3K +, but they didn't define how much of that was old leach pad and how much was new production. I also saw where commercial prod is defined as 60% of 75K (For purposes of the original financial agreement and the additional financial commitments) , which tells me the Q3 target represents 45K, I am guessing. This also "appears" to be somewhere close to what they need for break-even, if the analysts who visted the site know what they are doing.
5.) We are now hearing 50K numbers, which could just be the 500-1000 oz/month from the old leach pad on top of the 45K.
In summary,
- Rye is about a year behind on getting to a production rate needed to reach 75K / yr
- Rye has sold their royalty to fund operational expenses, I assume ? ? ? (ie leasing trucks, fixing conveyor belt, expanding leach pad, etc..)
- Macquerie is still showing a very rosy financial target on Rye, but. . . it is also projecting a loss for the year (2 cents/share) https://www.docdroid.net/uJwa1Nt/rye-patch-gold-corp-macquarie-research.pdf.html
Note: Full disclosure - I held 150K shares at one time, but have now gradually sold them as their plans weren't met. I personally believe the issue is whether they can get to full production before they run out of cash and have to pursue additional money / dillute shareholders. I therefore think its wise for everyone to track the production numbers and the expenses very carefully. They are practically running around the clock now and aren't at full production rates. That tells me they can't make up the difference with overtime/effort. They need productivity improvements, additional investments/expansion, etc.. At best, I am persoanlly seeing around 30-35K oz for 2017. Please do your own due dliligence on this and any other stocks which you invest in. (ie look at original financial case and share count, the assumptions, outline what they need to do each quarter & track progress.)
PS The future stock price is impossible to gauge at this point. I wouldn't be holding these shares for a short-term investment.. (ie next 6-9 months) At least not until they demonstrate better production numbers.(5000-6000 oz/mo)