International Copper study group report: Outlook 2017-2018Here is a report from the International Copper study group report released in April 2017 for 2017 and 2018.
https://www.icsg.org/index.php/component/jdownloads/finish/113/2252
Here is the part on deficit which is a revision from a forcasted oversupply back in October 2016.
World refined copper balance projections indicate a deficit of about 150,000 t for 2017 and 170,000 t for 2018:
ICSG recognizes that global market balances can vary from those projected owing to numerous factors that could alter projections for both production and usage. In this context it can be noted that actual market balance outcomes have on recent occasions deviated significantly from ICSG market balance forecasts due to unforeseen developments.
In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not take into account changes in unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded]. To facilitate global market analysis, however, an additional line item—Refined World Balance Adjusted for Chinese Bonded Stock Changes—is included in the table below that adjusts the world refined copper balance based on an average estimate of changes in unreported inventories provided by three consultants with expertise in China’s copper market.
Current ICSG projections are for a deficit of about 150,000 metric tonnes (t) in 2017, and about 170,000 t in 2018. This compares with a surplus of 160,000 t and a deficit of 100,000 t for 2017 and 2018, respectively, forecast at our October 2016 meeting. The change is due to stronger than previously anticipated growth in refined copper usage, mainly this year supported by improved global economic outlook.