TORC Oil & Gas Ltd. VREYD

Oil Price

[Newguy23]

I think we are about to see a large uptick in prices.  Analysts who know what they are talking about suggest true market fundamentals are not being reflected in the oil price currently (due to traders, who may or may not know much about true oil usage/demand). Saudi's know this and now focussed more on headline relief (ie decreasing US inventories) which they will easily do.  US growth - up, Canada growth - up, Chiina growth - up, and all leading indicators pointing to a progressively stronger economy (Caterpillar results/outlook, Dr Copper, etc).  These things always overdo themselves as well (thanks to those that follow stricly momentum and charts as opposed to fundamentals - love them!!!).  So lets say a current "fair price" is 55 based on market fundamentals... once "headline risk" is reversed, traders reverse their bets and we will see a rapid rise - say to 65, after which it will probably fall back.  Much like the CAD - "We at XXX are very surprised at the speed of the increase in the CAD" - WHY??? This happens everytime in currencies and commodities because momentum investors reverse their bets on something that had "so many bets against it" and guess what... things overshoot.  When oil turns, you will have everyone and their dog saying "We are surprised at the speed of the reversal" - WTF, you serious... even experienced investors will say that.  2 things will cause this - headline changes, and surprise in demand increases due to economic growth.  The wildcard is not slight increases in OPEC production from Iraq for example.  It is because the Middle East is at best unreliable, and there is likely to be another large unexpected decrease in production from somewhere over there at some point in time.  When - who knows?  But if that happens in the crux of a clear rebalancing - look out, could see 75.  Just my opinion, but I think this is the way it will go down