RE:Longs got timing all wrong with their thesisFriend, at the end of the day, you and I are both anonymous on this board, so anyone reading what we write can only rely on the strength of our arguments, nothing more.
But your analysis here is wrong. I have provided countless examples and a full analytical writeup. You provided no examples besides HLTH (which I responded to), and you can't even point to why any of the assumptions that I've made are wrong. Digitel did that, and I'm grateful that he/she engaged with me in an honest fashion, and if Digitel turns out to be right and I wrong on the assumptions I made, then I can admit that in an intellectually honest way. I can't do it with yours because although you clearly know more than general retail, you are like Munger's man with the hammer, and cannot refute the analytical problems that I've pointed out with your approach.
Your EPS argument would apply as being the primary measure of value if this was a financials company, and it is a good parameter for most stocks. But especially for roll-ups, it is very poor as a factor because of the amortization and refinancing problems that make the income statement messy, as I have repeatedly pointed out, and as you have yet to refute. Again, for anyone who is reading this, go through the financial statements of successful rollups (e.g., Malone's cable companies) and poor rollups (e.g., VRX, HLTH), and you will see my point, or I'm happy to provide a walkthrough if anyone, short or long, is interested.
As anyone here can see, I am a fundamental investor. I look at the quality of the underlying business and management team, and compare that to the multiple that the stock is trading at and the growth prospects of the Company, to determine if I want to buy. Some on this board may crticize me for not using technicals, and that's ok if it works for you, but given my experience in private investing, I use the same methods for evaluating private businesses and public businesses for sale, and I am sure I have done that far, far longer, and in far more situations, than my friend here.
I have no idea where CRH's bottom is and will make no attempt to call it. That's just not what I do. The market can in fact stay irrational for quite some time. What I can say is that I would have been a seller of the stock in March-April because the FCF multiple was way too high for my liking and I'm a buyer now because the stock is cheap given the factors I've described above.