RE:SHARE Price end of year Daytrader,
Nobody can now give a relevant estimation because we rely strong on the price per lb, now between 9-10USD. Will it remain this high. We think so given the events in China.
But bear 2 things in mind
1/ forecasted revenue. Simple way of calculation.
The CEO said that, under certain circumstances (which are now fulfilled), each raise of the sales price with 25cent means 5 mio USD extra profit per year. So 1 USD extra per lb = 20 mio net profit extra.
So if we follow Kha's reasoning of a net price of 8,5 USD (= market price of 9-10 minus Glencore's commission) - 3,81 USD (operational cost - which I think will just under 3,6 USD) = 4,7 USD net per lb. -> 4,7 * 20 mio = 94 mio per year at current levels.
Lets say we have 500mio of shares, in reality we have less now but there some more to come in the near future.
94mio / 500mio = 0,18 cent profit per share from operational point of view. But we have a lot of debt, that has to be repaid as well.
independent of debt, and at a conservative pe of 10: the share price could be 1,8 USD, at a pe of 12: it should be 2,25 USD.
So at the end of the year we could be around 1,50 USD? But your guess is as good as mine, based on the above.
2/ additional thought from my side. The company is owned for 60% by Arias, a fund. Funds, in general are not in for very long time.
The Chinese will need more Vanadium (just read Kha's postings). In the past they bought a Lithium mine in Australia, recently a Cobalt mine in Congo. So why not the only pure Vanadium company in the world. If you look a the potential of Vanadium for bateries, they would
be crazy if they didn't - given the fact that well spent money is not an issue for China.
How much is this company worth? 2,5 Billion? 2,5 Billion / 500mio shares = 5 USD per share ? of only 4 USD perhaps. Now it is 0,93 USD per share.
So the ball is rolling ....