For the record I'm that idiot...a shorter of oil (HOD)---First, the N. Korea situation has no bearing on the supply of oil as too much supply & less demand is the issue & N. Korea is neither a supplier nor is it a great demander of oil except from China & Russia. ---2nd, driving season is over & therefore a source of great demand is over. ---3rd, weather forecast for the US (NOAA)...What NOAAs official maps are showing us is that with a lack of an El Nio or La Nia event, this winter will see most of the continental United States with equal chances of an average winter in terms of snow. Temperature probability for much of the United States is a little more clear with NOAA calling for above average temperatures, everywhere except the upper midwest. No demand drivers there! ---all those cars lost have to be re-bought. Where's the money for that? Insurance...yeah right! No money for re-buying what's lost. Winter coming too. ---not all Middle East countries are counted in the supply picture to date (Nigeria & Libya) & will the cuts in production by OPEC be renewed, increased, decreased? Iraq is exceeding its limits. ---I'm siding with Schachter & his forecasts. carlos