RE:Lumber touched 412.50$412 is pretty good by recent standards (cheap wood era).
But it's modest historically if you look at inflation adjusted prices. I think a fairer price for framing lumber is more like $500 or $600 even.
So, it has a ways to go. The exogenous shocks we are seeing lately will drive the commondity which is good.
Now, on this ETF, "WOOD", I ran a quick pivot table for fun. here it is.
| Row Labels | Sum of Weight (%) |
| - | 0.2 |
| Containers & Packaging | 11.43 |
| Forestry | 11.21 |
| Household Durables | 3.27 |
| Paper & Forest Products | 49.1 |
| Real Estate Investment Trusts (Reits) | 22.81 |
| Grand Total | 98.02 |
I would say this is a dreadful way to play the lumber cycle. The REITs have limited exposure. The packaging guys... the forestry plays.... the paper aspect.
There are two Canadian firms 100% leveraged to lumber: Interfor and CFF. WFT and CFP have huge torque but some goofy holdings in pulp and paper. Hold those four if you think lumber is going to $600+. I think it's likely before the year 2020. I suppose WEF has some exposure too, but just a billion fbm.
Speaking of, that's another way of looking at it. WEF you pay about a buck for each board foot of capacity. It's half-price sale time at CFP and WFT. And CFF you pay maybe 12 cents for a board foot.
Food for thought. But WEF pays a decent div so there is that.