RE:RE:Apply the Art of War -- dudes and dudettes!
Some very valid questions.
I've been burnt before by arrogantly acting without waiting for confirmation.
There are two type of tactics: Buy high sell higher (Type I), buy low sell high (Type II aka bottom fishing)
In chartistry terms, confirmation means:
For Type I, wait until the SP reaches the breakout level.
For Type II, it means wait till end of day, or volatility diminishes.
Both Types require the chart pattern to have already formed. Thus, a chartist can only give you an estimate (I've said 0.4-0.5 was a reasonable entry price all the way from .7). But very often the estimate will be wrong...
Hence, the bottom will happen when it happens. I can't give you anything more than an estimate beforehand. Don't want to see anyone get burned coz of my incorrect estimate earlier, so I will say just this: It will be below .4...
As to how much the SP will recover after the bottom... Well we would need to know what pattern has formed, coz all patterns have different end point projections. So an estimate of this before the bottom pattern has formed will be even less accurate!