TimMcCracken wrote: Duediligence33 wrote: Aurora has revenue of 8 million and in January Aphria will have the same or more WITH profit that Aurora lacks and WEED just reported 18 million revenue
The bloated market cap of ACB is due to over zealous and reckless dilution throwing shares at everything in a frenetic desperation to be the biggest
Vic is prudent and careful with shareholder equity and the moves are calculated for a sustainable build up of profitable international company
at this time the whole estimated cannabis market is only 10 billion
ACB share should be $ 4 X 400 million shares = 1.6 billion market cap
APH share should be $ 10 X 150 million shares = 1.5 billion market cap
WEED share should be $ 20 X 200 million shares = 4 billion market cap
these top 3 take 7 billion or 70 % of the total market cap
with medreleaf and CMED and Cronos and Emblem and EMH and others add up the rest
Watch ACB come down to 4 and APH go up to 10 and WEED stay at $ 20
Hi DD30,
thanks for making comparison by using actual numbers. I appreciate this much more than people just throwing out “over valued” or “under valued” with no comparison case.
Just something to keep in mind when looking at the macro market as a whole.
Above you said the total retail sales could be up to $10 billion, if this is true the market cap of all these companies will make up much more than the $10 billion ... if this was true you would be assuming an industry Price to Sales ratio of 1.
Think of it like this ... if the market is worth $10 billion in retail sales ... @ say $10/ gram retail and $5/ gram for LPs at wholesale ... this means LPs will fight over $5 billion in rec sales.
At my most conservative calculations I know the market would be willing to pay at least 4 times sales and probably even up to 7 times sales ... when you consider global growth opportunities present.
So take the $5 billion in LPs revenues and add a multiple of 4-7x’s.
$5 billion * 4 = $20 billion
$5 billion * 7 = $35 billion
all the market caps combined could add up to 20-35 billion assuming a PS ratio of 4-7 times ... it could even be higher than this based on global opportunities and pure investor excitement.
Just my thoughts.
Good luck everyone.
Tim
Thanks for the clarification about the price to sales ratio - I never thought of that
that gives much more room for share price appreciation by a factor of 4 to 7 or we say 5
ACB - sp $ 20
APH - sp $ 50
WEED - sp $ 100
looks like they will have charts like Shopify (SHOP.TSE) or Dollarama (DOL.TSE)
why not ?
Canada as the first G7 nation to legalize Cannabis is a really BIG event