Welcome to the November 2017 edition of Electric Vehicle (EV) company news. November was yet another amazing month for the EV sector after an incredible September and October. The China ICE ban plan and 2019 ZEV credit system announcements has clearly spurred big auto into action in China. Chinese JVs were inked between Volkswagen-Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group, Ford-Zotye, and Toyota and their local partner. GM has already teamed up with SAIC and Guangxi Automobile Group. Meanwhile our EV sales leaders have been busy. BYD Co announced a move to open an electric truck plant in Canada. Tesla released their electric semi, and surprised with a new upgraded Roadster.
Hold on tight as the news is coming faster than an electric Tesla Roadster - 0-60 miles per hour in 1.9 seconds!
Global electric car sales as of end October 2017
Global electric car sales finished October 2017 with almost 121,000 sales for the month, up an amazing 84% on October 2016. Year to date sales are at 888,400 and are up 51% on the same period last year. With 2 months data remaining for 2017 there is no doubt we will pass the 1 million electric car sales mark, the question is by how far. My guess is we will pass 1.1 million in 2017, just for electric car sales. My guess for 2017 electric car sales growth is 55-60%, which will be a stunning result, and an acceleration of the EV boom!
Of note, ~64% of all global electric car sales in 2017 are pure electric.
China electric car sales were 66,000 in October 2017, up ~ 100% on October 2016. Electric car market share in China is currently at 2.0%.
Current subsidies in China were reduced by 20% in 2017 and will be reduced by 40% in 2019 and 100% by 2021. China's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credit system was announced on September 28, and will begin in 2019 with 10% of credits required from new energy vehicles (NEVs). That translates to 4-5% of EV sales as market share. We are also expecting an announcement at some stage as to when China will ban ICE vehicles, noting BYD Chairman Wang thinks by 2030.
Europe had over 27,000 electric cars sold in October 2017, 56% higher than in October 2016. Europe electric car market share is currently at 1.8%. Norway still leads the world with a truly amazing 43% market share of electric cars sold in October.
US electric car sales were 14,598 for October 2017. US electric car market share is currently around 1.1%.
Note: An acknowledgement to Jose Pontes of EV Sales and EV Volumes for his excellent work compiling all the electric car sales quoted above and below.
Global EV sales by manufacturer to end October 2017 and YTD
Source: EVSales
On November 21 Bloomberg reported, "Global electric car sales jump 63 percent. Electric vehicles sales surged to a record in the third quarter, largely driven by strong demand in China. Sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids exceeded 287,000 units in the three months ended in September, 63 percent higher than the same quarter a year ago and up 23 percent from the second quarter. BNEF expects global EV sales to surpass 1 million units this year for the first time. The market for electrified transport is starting to pick up speed as charging infrastructure becomes more accessible and manufacturers roll out models with longer driving ranges."
The global EV boom - China leading the charge
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EV market news for November 2017
On October 30 CNN reported, "2,100 cities exceed recommended pollution levels, fueling climate change. Air pollution causes over 3 million deaths every year." The picture below says it all.
Source
On November 5, in Clean Technica article titled "The Economist: Global tipping point for electric cars in 2018," it was written that "electric cars will come of age in 2018." The Economist supports that view that the global tipping point for electric cars may well be 2018. One key point is that the more affordable total cost of ownership is shifting from gasoline cars to more sublime electric cars. The head-to-head comparison shows the total cost of ownership of an EV to be cheaper in 2018, based on estimates from The Economist." Investors can also read my article "Electric Vehicles Will Be Affordable And Popular By 2020 - An EV Portfolio To Consider."
On November 6 Bloomberg technology reported: "Gas stations get ready for the electric future. A pit stop on a Norwegian highway in the middle of fields between Oslo and the Olympics town of Lillehammer will soon offer a glimpse of the future for the global gas station industry. At the Circle K in Dal, 34 miles (55 kilometers) north of the capital, owners of the next generation of electric cars will within months be able to charge their battery in as little as 10 minutes -- about one-third the time it now takes. While they wait, drivers can pop inside and wolf down a made-to-order burrito and other culinary items not usually found at gas station convenience stores."
On November 6 Reuters reported, "Shell looks beyond road fuels to secure future of refining. Shell wants 20 percent of sales from its fuel stations worldwide to come from recharging electric vehicles and low-carbon fuels by 2025."
On November 6 Wrangler News reported: "Is the USPS (US Postal Service) hopping on the electric-car train? The new contract could be for as many as 180,000 trucks. A final decision is pending."
On November 8 Reuters reported, "EU plans credits, fines to boost low-emission car production. The proposal calls for a 30 percent reduction in the average CO2 emission of carmakers' fleets by 2030 compared with 2021 levels. It also sets an interim goal of a 15 percent reduction by 2025 to help ensure automakers start investments early. If they are found in breach of new rules, carmakers face potential fines in the millions of Euros, with penalties set at 95 Euros for every gram of CO2 above the limit and for each new vehicle registered in that year. In a nod to manufacturers' concerns, the Commission is set to earmark 800 million Euros ($928 million) to support the rollout of charging points for electric vehicles and 200 million Euros for battery development."
During the month I came across two excellent graphs from Bloomberg's July 6 article "The Electric Car Revolution Is Accelerating." Also of interest was their comments "electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline models by 2025", and "battery manufacturing capacity will triple in the next four years." The BNEF graphs below say it all - Lithium ion batteries prices forecast to fall further, making EVs cheaper, and EVs reaching over 50% new market share by ~2038. My model has EVs selling more than ICE vehicles by 2033.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EV company news for November 2017
BYD Co. (OTCPK:BYDDY, OTCPK:BYDDF, HK:1211)
BYD is ranked number 1 in China with 20% market share and are the new number 1 globally, with 9% global market share.
On November 15 Bloomberg reported, "Buffett-Backed BYD to open electric-truck plant in Canada. Company to hire about 40 people initially for Ontario facility. BYD is 'significantly' accelerating investment in Canada."
On November 20 Seeking Alpha reported, "BYD expects huge sales growth amid EV boom. BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu thinks revenue could soar 10X to 1T Yuan ($150.7B) by 2025 as the local EV market accelerates."
The BYD Coach and Bus factory in Lancaster, California, USA
Source
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla is currently the number 1 electric car seller in the US with 23% market share, and the number 2 globally with 9% global market share.
On November 17 CNBC reported, "Tesla's new semi truck has a 500 mile range. Musk said the truck can beat a diesel truck in a straight line, up a 45 percent grade, and even without two of its four independent motors functioning. The truck can go from 0-60 in 5 seconds by itself, or in 20 seconds with an 80,000 pound load. And Musk said the truck will beat diesel trucks in terms of price per mile when the total cost of ownership is factored in, Musk said. Musk also said the truck drives far more easily than diesel trucks. Every truck will come with Autopilot standard. Tesla will also build a network of Tesla "Megachargers" that will charge the trucks' batteries to a 400 mile range in 30 minutes. "We are guaranteeing it won't break down for a million miles because it has four independent motors," Musk said. "You can lose 2 of those 4 motors and the truck will still keep going."
Tesla's electric semi truck
Source
Further in another CNBC article, "each truck will have built-in connectivity that integrates directly with a fleet's management system to allow routing and remote monitoring. The biggest difference between the Tesla Semi and other Class 8 trucks is the location of steering wheel and the driver. Instead of being on the left-hand side (or on the right side in Europe), the steering wheel is in the center of the cab with one touchscreen panel positioned on both sides of the driver."
The interior of Tesla's electric semi
Source
On November 17 CBS reported, "Loblaw to be early adopter of Tesla's all-electric Semi. J.B. Hunt puts in firm order, while Walmart says it will test 15 of the electric trucks. Canadian grocer Loblaw has ordered 25 of Tesla's all-electric Semis, as part of an effort to move its fleet of delivery trucks to low-emission vehicles."
You can view a video of the Tesla semi reveal and the upgraded Roadster here.
On November 17 CNBC reported, "Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils a surprise new car: A new ridiculously fast Roadster. The base model will be able to travel from 0-60 miles per hour in 1.9 seconds, which would be a record. It will go 0-100 miles per hour in 4 seconds. It will have a 200 kilowatt hour battery pack and will be able to drive 620 miles on a single charge, Musk said. The car is expected to be available in 2020."
Tesla's next generation electric Roadster
On November 30 Green Car Reports reported, "Tesla opens second huge China charging station for 50 electric cars."
BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY)
BMW is currently the number 3 global electric car manufacturer still with 9%global market share. BMW is number 1 in Europe with 20% market share.
On November 30 Green Car Reports reported, "2019 BMW i8: larger battery, more range, and new Roadster. Revealed at the 2017 Los Angeles Auto Show, the i8's mid-cycle refresh increases its battery capacity from 7.1 kwh to 11.7 kwh, improving the car's fairly paltry all-electric range from 15 to 18 miles. The i8 Roadster sports frameless doors, a vertical rear window, a new engine cover, and new aerodynamic cowls to better channel air to the Roadster's rear spoiler winglets."
The 2019 BMW i8 Roadster
Source
Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) (OTC:BCCMY, HK:1958), Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. [SAIC] (CH:600104)
BAIC is currently the number 2 selling electric car manufacturer in China with 16% market share, and the global number 4 with 8% market share.
The BAIC EC-Series was the top selling electric car in China in October with 11,315 sales, the first time a model exceeded 10,000 sales. The car has 200 kms range, and sells for 19.000€.
BAIC EC-Series - China's No 1 seller
Source
Renault (OTC:RNSDF) / Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) / Mitsubishi (OTCPK:MSBHY, OTCPK:MMTOF)
Nissan is currently ranked number 5 for global electric car sales with 5%market share, and Renault is ranked global number 10 with 4% market share. Renault is ranked number 2 in Europe with 13% market share. The Renault Zoe is still Europe's number 1 selling electric car in 2017.
2018 Nissan Leaf
Source
Toyota (NYSE:TM)
Toyota is currently ranked number 6 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking, with 5% global market share.
On November 17 Bloomberg Technology reported, "Toyota to re-enter electric vehicles starting in China From 2020. Toyota is considering selling battery-powered autos developed by its local partners under the Japanese marque. Toyota President Akio Toyoda said in September the company is a "little bit late" in the EV segment, even as rival automakers rush into the segment before China's cap-and-trade policy linked to zero- and low-emission vehicles kick in from 2019."
General Motors/Chevrolet (NYSE:GM)
GM/Chevrolet is currently the number 2 ranked electric car seller in the US with 22% market share. They are currently the number 7 global electric car manufacturer with 5% market share.
On November 13 Reuters reported, "GM's electric car sales will meet quotas by 2019, says China chief. General Motors Co's China joint ventures will be able to generate enough new energy vehicle (NEV) sales volume to account for NEV production quotas by 2019 and without the need to buy credits, GM China chief Matt Tsien said on Monday. GM produces vehicles in China through a joint venture with SAIC, the country's largest automaker, as well as a three-way tie-up with SAIC and Guangxi Automobile Group, formerly known as Wuling Motors. GM plans to launch at least seven more NEVs in China by 2020. The Baojun E100 starts at 93,900 yuan (US$14,142) but sells for 35,800 (US$5,391) yuan after government purchase subsidies."
The GM-SAIC-Guangxi Baojun 100 EV launched in July 2017
Source
Volkswagen Group (OTCPK:VLKAY) / Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) / Porsche (OTCPK:POAHF)
Volkswagen is currently the number 11 top-selling global electric car manufacturer with ~4% market share. In Europe Volkswagen is the number 3 electric car seller with a 13% market share.
On November 14 Stuff Motoring reported, "Fully electric Porsche Mission E sports car set for 2020 release. German car making giant Porsche has moved a step closer to releasing its first fully electric sports car, the Mission E, with the four-door sedan entering the final phase of development. It is expected to cost around $195,000 when hits the market and will feature a two-motor setup, producing 590bhp and driving 663lb ft of torque to the rear wheels"
On November 16 Bloomberg reported, "VW Teams with Chinese partners in $12 billion electric-car push. Volkswagen will invest more than 10 billion euros ($12 billion) with its partners to make and develop a range of new-energy vehicles in China as car makers step up investments in low-emission models in the world's biggest auto market. Volkswagen will make the investments by 2025 and introduce 40 locally produced vehicles, its China head Jochem Heizmann told reporters in Guangzhou Thursday. The European automaker's venture with Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group will start production of electric vehicles in the first half of next year, while sales will start in the second half. The China plans are part of a broader push by Volkswagen, which in September announced a 20 billion-euro plan to build electric versions of all 300 models in the 12-brand group's lineup. VW has previously said it plans to sell 400,000 new-energy vehicles a year by 2020 and increase that number to 1.5 million by 2025."
On November 17 CBC Canada reported, "Volkswagen accelerates push into electric cars with big spending plan. Volkswagen approved a 34-billion-euro ($51 billion Cdn) spending plan on Friday that accelerates its efforts to become a global leader in electric cars. The world's largest carmaker by unit sales will spend the money on electric cars, autonomous driving and new mobility services by the end of 2022, it said after a meeting of its supervisory board. "With the planning round now approved, we are laying the foundation for making Volkswagen the world's No. 1 player in electric mobility by 2025," chief executive Matthias Mueller told a press conference. The carmaker's projected spending is significantly bigger than its pledge two months ago that it would invest more than 20 billion euros on electric and self-driving cars through 2030. The group said its total investments in electric vehicles capacity and projects will amount to about 72 billion euros by 2022, confirming an earlier Reuters story." You can read more in a similar Bloomberg report here.
On November 29 Green Car Reports reported: "Half of all Porsches will plug in by 2025, showing importance of electric cars. Plug-in hybrids will make up the majority of those cars, at perhaps 70 or 75 percent, he said. But "in our lifetime," Zellner suggested, "battery-electric vehicles will take over." Porsche now sells six separate plug-in hybrid models."
Porsche fully electric Mission E - due 2020
Source
Daimler-Mercedes (OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:DDAIY)
An article and interesting picture I missed from September 12 by Bloomberg reported, "Mercedes has the horsepower for Tesla battle. Stirred into action by Tesla Inc.'s sales success, plus various government announcements that seem to herald the combustion engine's demise, Daimler is going "all in" on electric vehicles."
Source
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (OTCPK:GELYY, HK:0175), Volvo (OTCPK:VOLVY), Kandi Technologies Group (NASDAQ:KNDI), Proton, Lotus
Some news I missed last month as reported by Paultan.org: "Geely completes majority stake purchase of Lotus. The Zhejiang Geely Holding (ZGH) Group has completed the transaction for a majority stake in previously-Proton-owned sports car maker Lotus, and now holds a 51% stake in the company, while 49% is held by Malaysian automotive group Etika Automotive."
On November 9 Kandi Technology reported: "Strong third quarter 2017 financial results. Q3 revenue increased 345.4% yoy to $28.4 million, Q3 GAAP net income of $1.9 million compared to net loss of $0.6 million in the same period last year. Q3 JV Company sold 6,765 units of EV products, a 3576.6% increase yoy."
Ford (NYSE:F)
Ford is currently the number 3 ranked electric car seller in the US with 11% market share.
On November 8 Reuters reported, "Ford, China's Zotye Auto invests $756 million in electric vehicle JV. Ford Motor and China's Anhui Zotye Automobile have agreed to invest a combined $756 million to set up a 50-50 joint venture in China to build electric passenger vehicles, both companies said on Wednesday. Zotye Ford Automobile Co. Ltd, plans to build a manufacturing plant in Zhejiang province and will sell all-electric vehicles under a new Chinese brand. Zotye Ford will introduce a new brand family of small all-electric vehicles. We will be exploring innovative vehicle connectivity and mobility service solutions for a new generation of young city-dwelling Chinese customers."
Lamborghini
On November29 Green Car Reports reported, "Even supercar maker Lamborghini may go electric, and it's a very cool concept."
Lamborghini Terzo Millennio concept
Source
Honda (HMC, OTCPK:HNDAF)
On November 22 Electric Vehicle News reported, "Honda to halve electric cars' charging time to 15 minutes. Honda Motor plans to release in 2022 a selection of fully electric cars that can run 240km on a single 15-minute charge. Key to this plan is developing a new type of high-capacity battery that can handle the ultra-quick charging. The carmaker sources batteries for its electric-gas hybrid vehicles from Panasonic and others, but plans to create the new batteries in collaboration with a partner to be chosen later." Sounds more like a plan, rather than an achievement.
Tata Motors (TTM) group, Jaguar Land Rover
On November 26 Clean Technica reported, "World's cheapest car, the Tata Nano, will return as an EV. The hatchback will be available only as a fleet car, and Uber's competitor Ola Cabs will procure these cars for use as taxis. The Nano EV is likely to have a 48V electric system and a range of 200 kilometers per charge."
Mahindra & Mahindra (OTC:MAHDY)
On November 21 FirstPost reported, "Mahindra eyes US market for electric vehicles, sets up $230mn off-highway vehicle plant in Detroit."
Clean Technica recently stated, "Mahindra & Mahindra announced a similar deal (to Tata Motors/Ola above) with Uber to launch the Mahindra e2o plus hatchback and eVerito sedan as taxis in Hyderabad and Delhi."
Note: Jaguar Land Rover is a subsidiary of Tata Motors.
GreenPower Motor Company Inc. [TSXV:GPV] (OTCQX:GPVRF)
On October 19 Yahoo Finance reported, "GreenPower receives $1.1 million order for three synapse 72 all-electric school buses. In total, the order is for more than $1.1 million. GreenPower expects to deliver all three buses by the summer of 2018."
Vespa
On November 30 Green Car Reports reported, "Iconic Vespa Scooter, now 70 years old, gets brand-new electric powertrain."
Source
Airbus [FP:AIR][GR:AIR] (OTCPK:EADSY), Rolls Royce [LN:RR] (OTCPK:RYCEF), Siemens [GR:SIE] (OTCPK:SIEGY)
On November 28 Electric Vehicle News reported, "Airbus, Rolls-Royce, and Siemens team up for electric aircraft. The partnership which aims at developing a near-term flight demonstrator, which will be a significant step forward in hybrid-electric propulsion for commercial aircraft. The E-Fan X hybrid-electric technology demonstrator is anticipated to fly in 2020 following a comprehensive ground test campaign, provisionally on a BAe 146 flying testbed, with one of the aircraft's four gas turbine engines replaced by a two megawatt electric motor."
Autonomous Driving/Car Play and IT connectivity
Currently, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL) and Tesla are leaders in autonomous vehicles. Note that the new Model 3 will come as standard with WiFi. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is doing well with on-board entertainment Apple Play, as is Google with Android Auto. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a leader in supplying GPU chips for modern cars at various levels of autonomy and safety, but AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) may be gaining ground. All the above should benefit from the switch to EVs and higher-tech vehicles.
Investors may like to read my article "Companies to benefit from the future smart car boom."
Other EV companies
Other EV companies I am following include Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (private), Faraday Future, Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU), Fisker (private), Hyundai (OTC:HYMTF), Kia (OTC:KIMTF), Lucid Motors (formerly Atieva) (private), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY), Nio (formerly NextEV), and Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY).
The list of countries and cities banning (or soon to ban) petrol and diesel vehicles include at least - UK (2040), China, Germany, France (2040), Netherlands (2030), London, Paris (2030), Stuttgart, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens. Added to this are countries pushing hard to become 100% EV - Norway and India. There are probably many more, but I have only just recently started this list.
Investors may also like to read my latest article "The Electric Vehicle Boom Just Went Into Overdrive - What Stocks To Buy." Also a good video "Top 10 electric cars will challenge Tesla in 2018/2019."
Conclusion
October 2017 global electric car sales was another stellar month up an amazing 84% on October 2016 sales, with BYD grabbing the lead from Tesla. Electric car sales market share now exceeds 1% in all major regions with US (1.1%), China (2.0%), and Europe (1.8%).
2017 electric car sales are set to surpass 1 million for the first time, and growth for 2017 is headed towards 55-60%. This means the EV boom is accelerating from an already very impressive rate, given global electric car sales finished 2016 at 774,000 for the year, up 40% on 2015.
November has been another great month of EV news and deals.
My highlights for November were:
- EU calls for a 30 percent reduction in the average CO2 emission of carmakers' fleets by 2030 compared with 2021, with a 15 percent reduction by 2025.
- Tesla unveils an impressive electric Tesla semi for sale in 2019, and a super fast (0-60mph in 1.9 sec) long range (620 mile) upgraded Tesla Roadster for sale in 2020.
- Big Auto - Volkswagen, Ford, and Toyota all sign deals in November to do JVs selling electric cars in China.
- Volkswagen approved a 34-billion-euro spending plan for electric cars, autonomous driving and new mobility services by the end of 2022.
- "The Economist: Global tipping point for electric cars in 2018. "Electric cars will come of age in 2018."
- Airbus/Rolls Royce/Siemens working on a hybrid electric airplane for 2020.
December should see India's Modi government roll out a national policy for EVs, and a bumper EV sales month.
As usual, all comments are welcome.
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Disclosure: I am/we are long BYD CO (HK:1211), ALPHABET INC. (GOOG).
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