TimMcCracken wrote: Contrarian333 wrote: I guess we are waiting for other MOUs to solidify the bull case? Meanwhile the parabolic price pattern plays out.
Do you not understand that NB, NL, and PEI account for 4% of the Canadian population?
Here are the MOUs so far;
NB = 9,000 KG - CGC got 4,000 KG and OGI 5,000 KG
NL = 8,000 KG - CGC got 8,000 KG
PEI = 2,000 KG - CGC and OGI 1,000 KG each plus island Green undisclosed amount
total KG’s = 19,000 KG or 19,000,000 grams
Populations;
NB = 747,101
NL = 519,716
PEI = 142,907
Total = 1,409,724 = 4% of Canada
19,000,000 grams / 1,409,724 = 13.48 weight average g per person.
If you apply the 13.48 g per person to the Canadian population you get;
35,151,728 * 13.48 = 473,845,293 grams
retail price @ $10 = $4,738,452,934 market (retail)
There’s the $5 billion retail market analyst have projected and which may be light based on comparing current rec sales from legalized states, but in my opinion no province is going to order an excessive amount of product until the market is established, therefore at this point their MOU quantities are likely conservative.
Based on this and applying these numbers to the following provinces the big 4 will need;
Ontario = 182,000 KG
Quebec = 110,000 KG
BC = 63,000 KG
Alberta = 55,000 KG
total for these 4 provinces = 410,000 KG
The current MOU’s have been the appetizers, the big 4 are the main course.
Obvisouly Canopy will not get the total purchase orders but what if they get;
15% = 61,500 KG @ $5/ g wholesale = $307,500,000
20% = 82,000 KG @ $5/ g wholesale = $410,000,000
25% = 102,500 KG @ $5/ g wholesale = $512,500,000
30% = 123,000 KG @ $5/ g wholesale = $615,000,000
add this to secured revenue for medical and current MOU’s of $145,000,000 then you get annual revenues of $452,500,000 to $760,000,000 +/-
this also does does not include Manitoba, Saskatchewan, NS, north west territories, Nunavut, Yukon which makes up another 3,413,919 people or 9.70% of Canada.
These revenues also do not include emerging global opportunities.
The provinces will need Canopy to supply a large percentage because they are one of the few that will have large quantities of supply ready for sale.
Of course some of this is baked into the price and why wouldn’t it be? That’s how the market works and how early longs make money. There were people like you mouthing off when it was $2/ share and $12/ share, but you refused to put pen to paper and look from a macro view and figure out the opportunity at hand.