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Aphria Inc. APHA

Aphria, which is headquartered in Ontario, produces and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis. The company operates through retail and wholesale channels in Canada and internationally. Aphria is a main distributor of medical cannabis to Germany and has operations in over 10 countries outside of Canada. However, it does not have exposure to the U.S. CBD or THC markets due to the constraints of federal prohibition. It has some U.S. exposure through the acquisition of SweetWater, a craft brewer


NDAQ:APHA - Post by User

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Post by Duediligence33on Feb 03, 2018 8:43pm
239 Views
Post# 27497968

Some Observations and Comments

Some Observations and Comments The stock price is final barometer of the sellers and buyers sentiment at the present time. Look at the 3 yr chart. $ 1 to $ $ 2 took a year 2015 and 2016 then< $="" 2="" to="" 4="" took="" 6="" months="" in="" 2016="" then="" $="" 4="" to="" $="" 6="" in="" one="" month="" in="" 2016="" then="" to="" $="" 5="" and="" to="" $="" 8="" april="" 2017="" $="" 8="" to="" $="" 5="" june="" 2017="" to="" $="" 8="" october="" 17="" 2017="" the="" rise="" from="" october="" to="" dec="" was="" based="" on="" fundamentals="" and="" the="" sdm="" deal="" caused="" a="" spike="" to="" $="" 16="" the="" bought="" deal="" was="" at="" $="" 13.50="" the="" rise="" during="" christmas="" and="" new="" year="" from="" $="" 16="" to="" $="" 24.75="" was="" artificial="" and="" contrived="" based="" on="" the="" american="" etf="" and="" general="" fear="" of="" missing="" out="" and="" pile="" in="" of="" those="" looking="" at="" the="" july="" date="" and="" promise="" of="" riches="" overnight.="" i="" was="" invested="" from="" the="" early="" $="" 4.00="" days="" in="" nov="" 2016="" and="" have="" experienced="" many="" emotions="" so="" i="" empathize="" with="" the="" holders="" of="" aph.="" the="" prof="" and="" blue="" know="" what="" i="" am="" talking="" about="" as="" we="" all="" suffered="" together="" the="" gains="" and="" losses="" rollercoaster="" ride.="" the="" company="" is="" expanding="" at="" a="" pace="" i="" am="" lost="" at="" understanding.="" i="" was="" at="" the="" agm="" in="" october="" and="" the="" main="" worry="" then="" was="" dealing="" with="" the="" tsx="" dark="" cloud="" and="" now="" it="" seems="" copperstate="" was="" just="" a="" 20="" million="" albatross="" not="" really="" worth="" the="" market="" valuation="" loss.="" i="" am="" a="" loss="" to="" understand="" what="" goblue="" has="" eloquently="" tired="" to="" explain="" with="" the="" copperstate="" situation="" and="" liberty="" shares="" transfer="" and="" possible="" spin="" off="" with="" a="" new="" rto.="" how="" this="" will="" affect="" ebitda="" i="" do="" not="" know.="" in="" addition,="" the="" nuuvera="" deal="" coming="" so="" soon="" after="" their="" ipo="" and="" with="" the="" mersea="" road="" jv="" confounds="" me="" as="" to="" who="" is="" actually="" benefiting="" with="" shares="" and="" cash="" transferred.="" i="" am="" not="" sure="" exactly="" what="" nuuvera="" have="" world="" wide="" in="" licences="" and="" production="" capacity="" and="" connections.="" too="" complicated="" for="" me.="" the="" broken="" coast="" deal="" is="" a="" good="" one="" for="" quality="" rec="" cannabis="" with="" the="" $="" 15="" shares="" previously="" thought="" too="" low="" is="" now="" too="" high.="" in="" general="" this="" past="" month="" in="" the="" mj="" sector="" has="" been="" wild="" with="" aurora="" having="" over="" valued="" bloated="" share="" using="" the="" monopolymoney="" hostile="" takeover="" of="" cmed="" with="" lawsuits="" which="" suddenly="" turned="" friendly="" for="" over="" 1="" billion="" paper="" and="" newstrike="" left="" out="" and="" with="" no="" revenue="" going="" from="" 50="" cents="" to="" $="" 3.00="" on="" pure="" speculation.="" weed="" ran="" from="" $="" 20="" to="" $="" 44="" in="" 3="" weeks="" on="" no="" reported="" increase="" of="" revenue="" or="" even="" earnings.="" we="" will="" see="" on="" feb="" 14="" when="" they="" report="" earnings="" just="" how="" the="" 5="" billion="" dollar="" market="" cap="" is="" supported.="" after="" christmas="" when="" aph="" gapped="" up="" $="" 1.00="" every="" day="" for="" 2="" weeks="" i="" said="" to="" my="" son="" that="" is="" 150="" million="" more="" market="" cap="" every="" day="" with="" no="" actual="" increase="" in="" sales="" or="" profit.="" on="" paper="" there="" were="" aphria-millionaires="" but="" you="" have="" to="" sell="" for="" it="" to="" be="" real="" or="" it="" is="" just="" an="" illusory="" short="" term="" loan="" stay="" in="" reality="" we="" all="" can't="" all="" be="" rich="" at="" the="" same="" time.="" somebody="" has="" to="" be="" a="" buyer="" to="" put="" up="" the="" cash="" for="" the="" sellers="" to="" be="" rich="" and="" then="" they="" in="" turn="" hold="" the="" bag="" for="" a="" certain="" time="" until="" it="" is="" their="" turn="" to="" be="" rich.="" now="" there="" are="" a="" lot="" of="" unhappy="" wives="" and="" family="" members="" peeved="" at="" paying="" the="" $="" 16="" to="" $="" 24="" price="" as="" new="" investors="" who="" did="" not="" want="" to="" miss="" out.="" now="" the="" newcomers="" late="" to="" the="" party="" paying="" high="" prices="" have="" to="" wait.="" some="" old="" timers="" here="" have="" waited="" since="" 2016="" and="" they="" get="" to="" cash="" out="" if="" they="" want="" from="" their="" low="" $="" 2="" to="" $="" 4="" purchase="" price.="" because="" i="" had="" a="" large="" share="" position="" from="" the$="" 4="" range="" i="" cashed="" half="" the="" shares="" in="" the="" $="" 20="" range="" to="" protect="" initial="" capital="" and="" kept="" a="" core="" and="" then="" trade="" 10,000="" shares="" in="" and="" out="" according="" to="" chart="" man="" dan="" for="" cash="" flow.="" my="" advice="" is="" if="" you="" are="" in="" the="" red="" just="" wait="" for="" a="" rebound="" but="" when="" you="" are="" in="" the="" green="" again="" after="" a="" run="" up="" sell="" half="" to="" protect="" capital="" and="" buy="" back="" in="" when="" there="" is="" a="" pull="" back="" as="" there="" always="" is.="" just="" study="" the="" charts="" with="" the="" weekly="" and="" daily="" over="" 1="" and="" 2="" and="" 3="" years="" time="" frames.="" the="" unknown="" factor="" overriding="" the="" mj="" sector="" is="" the="" general="" stock="" market="" that="" may="" or="" may="" not="" have="" a="" small="" or="" large="" correction="" in="" which="" case="" everybody="" panics="" and="" goes="" to="" cash="" and="" as="" the="" tide="" goes="" down="" lower="" all="" boats="" will="" go="" down="" regardless="" of="" fundamentals.="" glta="" the="" company="" will="" be="" the="" leader="" in="" mj="" and="" profitable="" and="" higher="" share="" price="" next="" year="" but="" i="" am="" very="" confused="" with="" the="" combinations="" and="" permutations="" of="" broken="" coast="" and="" double="" d="" purchase="" and="" nuuvera="" copperstate="" and="" liberty="" health="" and="" aphria="" usa.="" and="" aphria="" international="" and="" some="" new="" possible="" rto="" entity="" btw="" -="" news="" soon="" shoppers="" will="" announce="" lp="" status="" to="" sell="" and="" ontario="" mou="" award="" to="" lp="" and="" phase="" 3="" health="" canada="" approval="" and="" the="" senate="" approval.="" $="" 1="" to="" $="" $="" 2="" took="" a="" year="" 2015="" and="" 2016="">< $ 2 to 4 took 6 months in 2016 then $ 4 to $ 6 in one month in 2016 then to $ 5 and to $ 8 april 2017 $ 8 to $ 5 june 2017 to $ 8 october 17 2017 the rise from october to dec was based on fundamentals and the sdm deal caused a spike to $ 16 the bought deal was at $ 13.50 the rise during christmas and new year from $ 16 to $ 24.75 was artificial and contrived based on the american etf and general fear of missing out and pile in of those looking at the july date and promise of riches overnight. i was invested from the early $ 4.00 days in nov 2016 and have experienced many emotions so i empathize with the holders of aph. the prof and blue know what i am talking about as we all suffered together the gains and losses rollercoaster ride. the company is expanding at a pace i am lost at understanding. i was at the agm in october and the main worry then was dealing with the tsx dark cloud and now it seems copperstate was just a 20 million albatross not really worth the market valuation loss. i am a loss to understand what goblue has eloquently tired to explain with the copperstate situation and liberty shares transfer and possible spin off with a new rto. in addition, the nuuvera deal coming so soon after their ipo and with the mersea road jv confounds me as to who is actually benefiting with shares and cash transferred. i am not sure exactly what they have world wide in licences and production capacity and connections. too complicated for me. the broken coast deal is a good one for quality rec cannabis with the $ 15 shares previously thought too low is now too high. in general this past month has been wild with aurora over valued bloated share monopoly hostile takeover of cmed suddenly turned friendly and newstrike with no revenue going from 50 cents to $ 3.00 on pure speculation. weed ran from $ 20 to $ 44 in 3 weeks on no reported increase of revenue or even earnings. we will see on feb 14 when they report earnings just how the 5 billion dollar market cap is supported. after christmas when aph gapped up $ 1.00 every day for 2 weeks i said to my son that is 150 million more market cap every day with no actual increase in sales or profit. on paper there were aphria-millionaires but you have to sell to be real or it just is a short term loan stay in reality we all can't all be rich at the same time. somebody has to be a buyer to put up the cash for the sellers to be rich and then they hold the bag. now there are a lot of unhappy wives and family members peeved at paying the $ 16 to $ 24 price as new investors. now the newcomers late to the party paying high have to wait. some old timers here have waited since 2016 and they get to cash out if they want from $ 2 to $ 4 because i had a large share position from the$ 4 range i cashed half the shares in the $ 20 range to protect initial capital and kept a core and then trade 10,000 shares in and out according to chart man dan for cash flow. my advice is if you are in the red just wait for a rebound but when you are in the green again after a run up sell half to protect capital and buy back in when there is a pull back as there always is. just study the charts with the weekly and daily over 1 and 2 and 3 years time frames. the unknown factor overriding the mj sector is the general stock market that may or may not have a small or large correction in which case everybody panics and goes to cash and as the tide goes down lower all boats will go down regardless of fundamentals. glta the company will be the leader in mj and profitable and higher share price next year but i am very confused with the combinations and permutations of broken coast and double d purchase and nuuvera copperstate and aliberty health and aphria usa. and aphria international and some new rto. btw - news soon shoppers will announce lp status to sell and ontario mou award to lp and phase 3 health canada approval and the senate approval. $="" 2="" to="" 4="" took="" 6="" months="" in="" 2016="" then="" $="" 4="" to="" $="" 6="" in="" one="" month="" in="" 2016="" then="" to="" $="" 5="" and="" to="" $="" 8="" april="" 2017="" $="" 8="" to="" $="" 5="" june="" 2017="" to="" $="" 8="" october="" 17="" 2017="" the="" rise="" from="" october="" to="" dec="" was="" based="" on="" fundamentals="" and="" the="" sdm="" deal="" caused="" a="" spike="" to="" $="" 16="" the="" bought="" deal="" was="" at="" $="" 13.50="" the="" rise="" during="" christmas="" and="" new="" year="" from="" $="" 16="" to="" $="" 24.75="" was="" artificial="" and="" contrived="" based="" on="" the="" american="" etf="" and="" general="" fear="" of="" missing="" out="" and="" pile="" in="" of="" those="" looking="" at="" the="" july="" date="" and="" promise="" of="" riches="" overnight.="" i="" was="" invested="" from="" the="" early="" $="" 4.00="" days="" in="" nov="" 2016="" and="" have="" experienced="" many="" emotions="" so="" i="" empathize="" with="" the="" holders="" of="" aph.="" the="" prof="" and="" blue="" know="" what="" i="" am="" talking="" about="" as="" we="" all="" suffered="" together="" the="" gains="" and="" losses="" rollercoaster="" ride.="" the="" company="" is="" expanding="" at="" a="" pace="" i="" am="" lost="" at="" understanding.="" i="" was="" at="" the="" agm="" in="" october="" and="" the="" main="" worry="" then="" was="" dealing="" with="" the="" tsx="" dark="" cloud="" and="" now="" it="" seems="" copperstate="" was="" just="" a="" 20="" million="" albatross="" not="" really="" worth="" the="" market="" valuation="" loss.="" i="" am="" a="" loss="" to="" understand="" what="" goblue="" has="" eloquently="" tired="" to="" explain="" with="" the="" copperstate="" situation="" and="" liberty="" shares="" transfer="" and="" possible="" spin="" off="" with="" a="" new="" rto.="" in="" addition,="" the="" nuuvera="" deal="" coming="" so="" soon="" after="" their="" ipo="" and="" with="" the="" mersea="" road="" jv="" confounds="" me="" as="" to="" who="" is="" actually="" benefiting="" with="" shares="" and="" cash="" transferred.="" i="" am="" not="" sure="" exactly="" what="" they="" have="" world="" wide="" in="" licences="" and="" production="" capacity="" and="" connections.="" too="" complicated="" for="" me.="" the="" broken="" coast="" deal="" is="" a="" good="" one="" for="" quality="" rec="" cannabis="" with="" the="" $="" 15="" shares="" previously="" thought="" too="" low="" is="" now="" too="" high.="" in="" general="" this="" past="" month="" has="" been="" wild="" with="" aurora="" over="" valued="" bloated="" share="" monopoly="" hostile="" takeover="" of="" cmed="" suddenly="" turned="" friendly="" and="" newstrike="" with="" no="" revenue="" going="" from="" 50="" cents="" to="" $="" 3.00="" on="" pure="" speculation.="" weed="" ran="" from="" $="" 20="" to="" $="" 44="" in="" 3="" weeks="" on="" no="" reported="" increase="" of="" revenue="" or="" even="" earnings.="" we="" will="" see="" on="" feb="" 14="" when="" they="" report="" earnings="" just="" how="" the="" 5="" billion="" dollar="" market="" cap="" is="" supported.="" after="" christmas="" when="" aph="" gapped="" up="" $="" 1.00="" every="" day="" for="" 2="" weeks="" i="" said="" to="" my="" son="" that="" is="" 150="" million="" more="" market="" cap="" every="" day="" with="" no="" actual="" increase="" in="" sales="" or="" profit.="" on="" paper="" there="" were="" aphria-millionaires="" but="" you="" have="" to="" sell="" to="" be="" real="" or="" it="" just="" is="" a="" short="" term="" loan="" stay="" in="" reality="" we="" all="" can't="" all="" be="" rich="" at="" the="" same="" time.="" somebody="" has="" to="" be="" a="" buyer="" to="" put="" up="" the="" cash="" for="" the="" sellers="" to="" be="" rich="" and="" then="" they="" hold="" the="" bag.="" now="" there="" are="" a="" lot="" of="" unhappy="" wives="" and="" family="" members="" peeved="" at="" paying="" the="" $="" 16="" to="" $="" 24="" price="" as="" new="" investors.="" now="" the="" newcomers="" late="" to="" the="" party="" paying="" high="" have="" to="" wait.="" some="" old="" timers="" here="" have="" waited="" since="" 2016="" and="" they="" get="" to="" cash="" out="" if="" they="" want="" from="" $="" 2="" to="" $="" 4="" because="" i="" had="" a="" large="" share="" position="" from="" the$="" 4="" range="" i="" cashed="" half="" the="" shares="" in="" the="" $="" 20="" range="" to="" protect="" initial="" capital="" and="" kept="" a="" core="" and="" then="" trade="" 10,000="" shares="" in="" and="" out="" according="" to="" chart="" man="" dan="" for="" cash="" flow.="" my="" advice="" is="" if="" you="" are="" in="" the="" red="" just="" wait="" for="" a="" rebound="" but="" when="" you="" are="" in="" the="" green="" again="" after="" a="" run="" up="" sell="" half="" to="" protect="" capital="" and="" buy="" back="" in="" when="" there="" is="" a="" pull="" back="" as="" there="" always="" is.="" just="" study="" the="" charts="" with="" the="" weekly="" and="" daily="" over="" 1="" and="" 2="" and="" 3="" years="" time="" frames.="" the="" unknown="" factor="" overriding="" the="" mj="" sector="" is="" the="" general="" stock="" market="" that="" may="" or="" may="" not="" have="" a="" small="" or="" large="" correction="" in="" which="" case="" everybody="" panics="" and="" goes="" to="" cash="" and="" as="" the="" tide="" goes="" down="" lower="" all="" boats="" will="" go="" down="" regardless="" of="" fundamentals.="" glta="" the="" company="" will="" be="" the="" leader="" in="" mj="" and="" profitable="" and="" higher="" share="" price="" next="" year="" but="" i="" am="" very="" confused="" with="" the="" combinations="" and="" permutations="" of="" broken="" coast="" and="" double="" d="" purchase="" and="" nuuvera="" copperstate="" and="" aliberty="" health="" and="" aphria="" usa.="" and="" aphria="" international="" and="" some="" new="" rto.="" btw="" -="" news="" soon="" shoppers="" will="" announce="" lp="" status="" to="" sell="" and="" ontario="" mou="" award="" to="" lp="" and="" phase="" 3="" health="" canada="" approval="" and="" the="" senate="" approval.="">
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