RE:Careful what you ask for...-I totaly agree with you about management team.
-Cash burn rate will be hard to cut significantly at this time except for freezing hiring and ask management to cut on their avantage. They can not lay off so many people without loosing these people already form for the job. It would be a loss and you can not hire back these people as most of them will go find a job somewhere else and in any case, if they get there BLA in Q1 2019, they cannot hire back only in Q1 2019.
About money: Bruce said they have 20 millions of plasma inventory (collected by Winnipeg center) that can be sold easily. Since they are 10-12 months away from a BLA, they don't nedd all of it now and will continu to build the inventory with their plasma collection center.
I believe they will raise money before the AGM. They already told us in February about the 250 millions prospectus. I believe a financing is already in negociation. They have no choice, they need money, unless they succeed this time to close a deal with upfront money.
I believe that they will not try to raise 250 millions at the actual SP but I would guess between 50 to 100 millions depending on the deals offers on the table for IPF partner.
Bruce said they want to avoid to use the Thomvest line of credit and it is understandable since it is costly and has to be repay by november 2019. Also I don't see Thomvest as a friend of Prometic. There is no real friend in business and when you look at the condition of the line of credit (that was probably suppose to be paid back with a uncertain PVR) I definetively don't see Thomvest as friends but as bankers. And since that line of credit has to be paid back in november 2019 and not in 2026 like the previous one from Thomvest, I believe that their loan condition just became harder and signal that the next one might have even worst conditions. I dont think they will abandone Prometic, but I don't see them in the next financing unless Prometic can not secure better conditions than the future Thomvest conditions
To raise money between now and AGM, there is IMO no catalist (other than a deal on IPF). So it could be costly. The underwritter are sharks. With the level of confidence right now, I see a financing between 50 cents to 90 cents (this is just a guess) and some analist seems to agree in this range. Underwritter will do what it takes to keep the SP as low as possible prior to the financing and we can not forget that there is still shorts that will also try their best to keep the SP low as long as they can.
About the IPF deal. IMO, they have no choice now to cut a deal unless they go for a huge dilution and raise what it takes to fully fund the operations and the IPF trial. The trial is already signed with Convance. It will be expensive and it can not be postpone because Prometic will loose it's advance on the competition and it would also loose more credibility.
There must really be some potential partner for the IPF considering all the data available. However, I believe they need to sign with a credible pharma (a real one with lots of cash) in order to have credibility, assurance that this pharma can go all the way nomatter what and maybe some influence on the regulatory agency (FDA, HC, CE etc).
However, considering our position right now, a deal might be less atractive now. Prometic has their back against the wall. But IMO, they have not much choice and they will have to choose between a costly financing to go on the IPF trial on their own or to partner with a less favorable deal but get it done, get back credibility and be able to keep 100% of PPPS (that alone has the potential to be a huge company) .
Of course their are probably many other options. This is only my opinion of whats next.
SP will be very volatile until financing or a deal is done. Until then, the uncertainty and credibility crisis will put a lot of pressure on the SP. There will be bounce back, maybe today and there will be down pressure as well. Only the strong will survive!!!
Fortunately, the science is still great, however, the value of the SP can not be related to it now since the management has to show they can turn the pipeline into profit. And there is still a lot of time and fights to wins until then.
GLTA