RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Peyto's Q1/18, revised forecast. PEY adds $91m to coffersThank you for throwing the invitation, Yash.
First I need to say this process made me revisited my model and I updated various assumptions. Products decline and mix, pricing, costs, etc... I had not done it for months and surely things have changed.
Here are some of the corresponding values trying to keep your format:
2018 Production
NGL from 10 500 boe/d to 9100 boe/d exit rate
NatGas from 103 000 boe/d to 82 000 boe/d exit rate
NGL/NatGas from 9.5% to 10% on the last day of the year.
Average production for 2018 : 96 000 boe/d with Capex program of $210m
(The 99 000 boe/d average I had earlier was from my mistake)
1. Hedged NG $410.5m
2.Unhedged NG $55m 93.5k mcf/d @ $1.60/mcf
3. NGL $210m 9300 bbl/d @ $62/bbl
TOTAL: $675m
Expenses:
1. $183m Natgas
2. Dividends: $119m
3. Capex: $210m
TOTAL: $512m
Difference: $675 - $512 = $163m
Some comments:
Impact of selling elsewhere than AECO might raise substancially transport cost/mcf but better pricing might mitigate this.
Expect total production to fall below 88k boe/d at its nadir this Summer.
Don't be deceived if NGL average 2018 production falls below 9800 boe/d.
It might be already below 9300 boe/d as we write.
I just spent over an hour to update my model, thanks to you!
There might still be some minor errors.
Comments welcome.
Cheers!