Noodling on some possible share prices for the futureI have been noodling around our current share price and where it might be going. My estimates are driven by curiosity given expectations of a financial update that should take place the end of this month.
1) We have about 115 million oustanding shares
2) Based on a You Tube video from February that featured our CEO it was mentioned then that sales revenue was about $7million and that it was thought we might be at an operating break even point within 2-3 quarters.
3) I am making the assumption that May news will show an increase in sales revenue . . we will still not be at a break even point
4) Sales revenue will have continued to grow and the projection will be that for 2018 sales will top $10 million with a double potential taking it to $14 million with a trend line suggesting 50% sales growth for yrs 2--3-4 making this a $46 millionish business by 2021.
5) With a Feb sales report of $7 million our Price to Sales ratio based on a current market cap is 2.28
6) Given that much of our future revenue will occur through a very low cost to process of license renewals with increased sales we could see margins in the 40-50% range making this a potentially very profitable enterprise. So if the CEO is correct and VitalHub matures into a 3-5 yr company with revenues in the $40 - $60 million range (as minimums) such a margin range would be quite interesting given with profitability being achieved in 2018 the need to increase the float should remain low. Which is why getting user sites successfully set up is key and why the E&Y partnership is both a masterpiece and vital for achieving this outcome.
6) So a 1 yr estimate for this stock based on P2S and growth potential in my estimation should fall into the range of . . . . 2.2 + 4.0 (investor speculation driver) . . . so 6.2 X $12 million sales revenue just under .75 cents and a market cap of $86 million
7) This assumes we do not see too much additional share dilution, updated financials support being at break even within 2018 and sales revenue growth at 70 - 100% by yrs end.
8) I believe my 2.2 is fact based but do want too reinforce my 4.0 is purely gut based and so could be anywhere from 0.0 to 8.0. That being said I would be curious to see what others think might be to them a realistic ratio based on these two elements. FOr example if you decide to replace my 4.0 with 5.0 end of 2018 share price would look like . . .85 cents. Thoughts??