RE:RE:What else Hap Sneddon said......So what is greater:
a) your conviction that there will be no common equity raise, OR
b) your conviction that if there is one, that it will be at higher prices than Friday's close ?
If your answer is (b) then you should break out a calculator and do the math notes below...
Let's recall that the company sold equity at $31 over a year ago in the sub receipts and look where the common stock is today. Close to 20% below that.
My point is that no one here seems to be even attaching the remotest likelihood to an event that could have material dilution impacts on common shareholders.
if there is a common equity issue, then the dilutive impact will be far greater than any rounding error between it being priced at $26, $29, or even $31 per share. Just do the math and calculate the # of new shares generated by a $500Mil - $1 Bil. new common share offering at those 3 price levels I noted. Put it another way, I see common share dilution coming more likely than not before Q3 of next year - and it will have pretty much the same dilutive impact regardless of where it is priced.
So it's not that I don't believe that the stock may not rise to $28 or $29 before end of this year - just that there may well be additional headwinds to a rise much beyond that in the medium term (next 3 years).