RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:?? I don't believe that Emblem ever stated that they are going to buy bunk weed at $4 and sell it to Fire and Flower at $5. That's an interesting speculation though.
Emblem has certainly stated that they are exploring alternate supply routes, but have not confirmed any save for the 10% pre-sale of CBD from ICC. There will be import of oils from cheap sources outside of Canada. You yourself have stated outright that "This is how the extract market will be supplied". Emblem is positioning to be able to be one of those who takes cheap ingredients and brands them at high value.
In terms of their plans to spend their cash, they've outlined it here. Here's the source - page 12 of their latest MD&A. They set $50M for their Paris Road expansion. Not that there's any mention of it being built currently.
In terms of the edibles slant: Edibles aren't supposed to be available after October 17th 2019, the plan is for them to be available "no later than 12 months following the coming into force of the proposed legislation". Here's the source - Question 5 of this Q&A from the Govt. of Canada website. Not that government always works fast...
Also, what is not mentioned in your analysis, is that they have the entire Pharma angle. Again, it's not proven out. They are still building it, and making progress. To count it out completely seems strange.
I'm not sure that they're going to pull all of this off. But it is peculiar to believe so passionately that they will not. What is so convincing that proves Emblem is a poor investment compared to a pure pharma play like Kalytera, or a pure growing play like Beleave?