RE:RBC report Thanks SPCEO.
As per usual, the market shoots first and answers questions later.
Any feedback from management on this report?
Surely, they have to be disappointed.
bfw
SPCEO1 wrote: I have had a quick read of the RBC report. He basically talked to Key Opinion Leaders (KOL's) and used their feedback to come up with a very low expectation of patients for Trogarzo. Interestingly, those long timers here will remember that when the Trogarzo deal was first signed, the expectation was that its sales would amount to about as much as Egrifta's. This was based on TH talking to KOL's as well. Once they did their market research, however, they concluded the market was much larger. Unfortunately, it will take a while and results that don't comport withhis low view of the number of patients.for the analyst to change his forecasts higher.
Basically, it looks to me that he concluded that about 75-80% of the MDR patients are effectively homeless people who will not come in on a regular basis to get an IV. Therefore, that large percentage of the 20-25,000 MDR patients will never recieve treatment. If you are looking for a quck summary of why he comes up with low number of patients, that explains much of it.
Now, the company needs to prove him worng, but that will take some time to accomplish.