RE:To share some numbers with you...Bossu, your number crunching is appreciated. For those strugglng to see through the trailing mist of explosive diarrhea that has been surrounding this stock lately this exercise is an instructive one.
At present the WGL acquisition has been valued like the company bought a bag of discarded foreskins from a sketchy mohel. That will change and those who recognize that are positiioning themselves accordingly.
IMO anything under $27-ish is a gift; anything under $25 requires little to no functional brain capacity to buy.
Cheers
bossu wrote: Just to show you how ridiculous the situation and share price is at this moment;
EBITDA numbers.
H1 numbers from the financial numbers.
H2 Assuming same numbers and a projected increased of 20 % as per managment
.............................H1...........................H2
ALA ..................$ 388 M..................$ 388 M
WGL................. $334 M...................$ 334M
................Total $ 722 M......................$ 722 M
..................................................+20% $ 144 M Expected increased as per Managment
So the total EBITDA for the year should be $ 1 588 M
Dividend paid to common and preferred shareholders
...........................H1..............................H2
ALA ..................$ 227 M.....................
WGL..................$ 53 .M....................
Total 6 months $ 280 M................ $ 339 M ( WGL/ALA and 266 M shares and same ratio of H1
Total 2018 .........$ 619..............................................
Before the transaction ALA was paying a ratio DIVIDEND/EBITDAW $ 227 M/$ 388 or 53 %
Now after the transaction ALA/WGL payout will be for the 2018
Total for 2018..........$ 619 M/$ 1 588 M or 39 %
This simple calculation shows that ALA/WGL will use 14 % less of its EBITDA ( 53 %-39 %)
to pay its dividend.
Another factor to consider:
Ratio of EBITDA ALA to June 30 2018 and dividend; or $ 388 /$ 227 =1,7
and share price was at this time $ 26,50
Projected ration for 2018 ALA/WGL $ 1 586 M / $ 619 =2,56
and share price is at $ 22,35 while it should be $ 39,90 based on June 30 2018 number.
Probably not but surely in the low $ 30 number.
Note :While I was looking at the WGL numbers I found that this acquisition is excellent and
patient share holders are going to be rewarded.and the projected EBITDA dividend is safe considering that the cash flow % is less than it used to be with ALA (before the transaction)
Indeed the situation in ridiculous and ''hurting'' but hopefully I d'ont rely only on this investment!