GREY:ALARF - Post by User
Comment by
Capharnaumon Nov 22, 2018 10:01am
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Post# 29009294
RE:Analyst negativity - faulty projections
RE:Analyst negativity - faulty projectionsSo I ran numbers for fun.
Scenario 1:
In 2019, they have net $0 partner contributions during the year, Q3 partners distribution runrate for 2019 is maintained, resets are an average of 0%, GWM added. Net cash from operations would be $66.5M or $1.83 per share. Payout would be 90.2%.
Scenario 2:
In 2019, they have net $0 partner contributions during the year, Q3 partners distribution runrate for 2019 is maintained, resets are an average of 4%, GWM added. Net cash from operations would be $69.3M or $1.91 per share. Payout would be 86.4%.
Scenario 3:
In 2019, they have net $50M partner contributions during the year, Q3 partners distribution runrate for 2019 is maintained, resets are an average of 4%, GWM added. Net cash from operations would be $72.5M or $2.00 per share. Payout would be 82.5%.
That's without additional upside (higher net contributions... I expect $100M which would lower payout to 79%), additional contributions from Kimco/SCR, recovery of assets from KMH/Group SM (which would lower interest costs and contribute to higher net cash from operations).
Scotia's forecast looks pretty negative. Imo Scenario 3 is fairly conservative and would likely result in another dividend raise next year.