RE:Analyst negativity - faulty projectionsAll kinds of problems with your "analysis" there Goofy or i mean Mickey
- Company Target institutional projections and projectionists have a variety of vested interests in many aspects outside of private investors. Its a mugs game worthy of a 60 minutes investigation. Just ask John Oconall who is on BNN as a Market call guest, Also, do some reading into how it actually works. Otherwise we could all be rich beyond belief, if we just followed thier advice correct?
-CFPS goes down due to the amount of Buyout Exits (3 I think) experienced in 2018
- You have to figure out exactly what (and how) they are calculating thier ratio. It is different from what numbers the company uses as they have different concerns then the company.
- Alaris has only so much capital to deploy - If microsoft wanted a billion dollars from them, they would be unable to deliver. The lending institution to AD tells them how much they are willing to lend, based on many factors. They have another 50 or so million (i forget exactly) semi-commited to the plastic surgury partner. I believe that leaves them under $100 million to deploy
- If more then that then they have to go the "bank" and get more. After the last three yrs of problems the bank has seen from AD I doubt that would be an easy process
- Most importantly it sounds like you should go to the bank and tell them to invest it for you
mickeymouse wrote: Scoita currenlty has a target price of 19.00 - when you look at the numbers presented you see that they are expecting CFPS to plunge siginfiacantly next year - why is a mystery??
CFPS
2018 - 1.97
2019 - 1.64
2020 - 1.67
Also from their report their adjusted payout ratio is way out of whack:
2019 - 102.5%
2020 - 98.2%
Very negative projections and their cash deployment expectations are also very low - 2019 they are predicting a drop to well below 100 million.
This anyalyst clearly has a negative perception and either is not listening to conference calls when the positive capital deployment environment is mentioned or believes that there will be significant redemptions - in either case way out too lunch with the numbers.
With the positive resets in 6 weeks the payout ratio will drop again and new deployments will move the needle well into the 80's - amazing that a company that follows through on their promises and has dealt with problem files in an transparent and conservative manner is still treated this way by the so called experts - still trading at close to a 9% yield - but then again anything with a yield of over 5% is ridiculed and most of the analysts are on this bandwagon as they hate buy and hold dividend investors as less trading impacts their industry profits.
Would you rather have the company pay out 90% of their cash flow to you as a dividend or payout 50% with a lower dividend? - seems like a no brainer to me as I would rather have the cash in my pocket rather than leaving it with management where mistakes can be made.