SPCEO1 wrote: I follow this stock as closely as anyone and I thought I had a pretty good idea on Q4 sales. But if what Taimed has said is accurate in regard to the number of patients, C$9 million in Q4 Trogarzo sales is certainly possible. But I don't know if I trust the Taimed info enough to be so bold as to predict C$9 million in Q4 Trogarzo sales.
The problem with sorting all this out has to do with:
1.) Confusion related to the two companies different quarter's ends
2.) Confusion related to what the average realized price per patient actually is
3.) Confusion related to THERF not saying much of anything and Taimed saying a bit more about current sales.
4.) Confusion about any given quarter's starting number of patients and ending number of patients.
5.) Confusion because of conflicting and incorrect info in Bloomberg and IQVIA's estimated sales numbers
The only thing we know is what Q3 sales actually were. We can then guess at the average number of patients during the quarter by guessing at the average realized price for the quarter. That gives us an estimate of the average number of patients and we can try to back out of that the starting and ending number of patients. It is all a pretty imprecise process.
Prior to this info today, I was thinking Q4 Trogarzo sales would end up being a bit north of C$7 million. Now, maybe C$8 million is a better number. But, frankly, I don't have a ton of confidence in any estimate right now. Maybe as I get a chance to think it all through more, my confidence level will grow.
All that being said, Q4 Trogarzo revenues are not what matters anyway. Q1 and beyond will tell us better what the future is for the stock. But it is still a situation where it just a matter of how good things will be for TH shareholders, not if they will be good.
palinc2000 wrote: Is it fair to assume that Trogarzo sales for TH fourth quarter could be at least 9 Million Cad?