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48North Cannabis Corp. NCNNF



GREY:NCNNF - Post by User

Comment by xelanitramon Dec 12, 2018 5:14pm
55 Views
Post# 29106064

RE:RE:RE:RE:NRTH - HEXO COMPARISON

RE:RE:RE:RE:NRTH - HEXO COMPARISONMarcel, I appreciate your comments. However, I think that you may be off by a digit with your revenue calculation. 45,000kg = 45,000,000g. So at your assumed value of $10/g, the revenue would be $450MM - not $45MM. So, if you assume that price, things get extremely rosey. I would, however, assume $6.50 - 7.00/g for wholesale of indoor, based on Ms. Gordon's comments during interviews. Assuming 5,000kg for 2019, and the conservative $6.50/g, indoor could contribute ~$32.5MM to 2019 revenue if the full capacity is wholesaled(?). For outdoor, I'm going to be conservative and suggest wholesale value of ~$3.25/g. So, if they were to wholesale the full 40,000,000g, that would equate to an additiinal $130MM (i.e., total indoor+outdoor of >$160MM). My thought, however, is that the 40,000kg may not contribute substantially to revenue until 2020 due to lag of extraction, contract manufacturing of 2nd-gen products, stocking of stores and eventual sale. Still, those sales will likely be at a very high margin (higher than flower, per gram of input). So, let's now assume 2020 value of, say, $8/g for the full 45,000,000 capacity. That eauates to $360MM (i.e., $0.36 billion). This is where I'm coming from - I think that revenue may be slightly lower than your suggestion in 2019, but the potential revenue for 2020 will be so high that astute investors may price it in to the company valuation prior to that, during 2019. We're in at ground-floor, presently, and I anticipate a continuous creep up from here to some point when investors catch on (tomorrow?... next year?), with ups and downs of course, then a sharper rise to bring it more in-line with peers. Im not selling on small ups and downs, here. I've traded on-and-off for ~18 years. In the past couple of years, I've done very well, trading, but when I look at my early spreadsheets and picks, I would've done much better if I weathered the ups and downs and "invested" instead of trading. This feels like some of my early picks that I should've simply "invested" in...so that's what Im doing now
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