GREY:ALARF - Post by User
Comment by
Capharnaumon Dec 17, 2018 6:48pm
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Post# 29126630
RE:RE:RE:Recession or slow growth in 2019-2020 and Alaris Strategy
RE:RE:RE:Recession or slow growth in 2019-2020 and Alaris Strategydigitel wrote: "The recession scenario is a recurring fear that has been talked about a couple of times already in the past 5-7 years. It could happen in 2-5 years, hard to predict."
The US is already deep in recession. It has borrowed a lot of money and is spending it which can create an illusion of growth in the short term; however that borrowed money has to be paid back.
Subtract the 5% deficit/GDP ratio in the US from the 3% economic growth and US GDP is shrinking at a rate of 2% per year. This mirage of growth can only go on so long as the lenders allow it.
When was the last time the US paid net debt? Are you implying they'll suddenly raise taxes? If not, then it has no bearings on the economy. That's not sound math either.
As to recession, it usually happen when demand goes down and isn't overcompensated by rising offer. So far, demand has stayed strong.