RE:RE:RE:I'm Thinking This is a Yes Vote Petro,
There are no guarantees for sure, but I am trying to be consistent:
If the shares have a real value, regardless of whether that's 2 cents or 10 cents, then if the Trustee was paid interest in March in shares, they should sell and I receive the interest payment. If the shares go "no trade" on that transaction, that effectively says there is no market for the shares at any price, which effectively makes them valueless. No point in holding valueless shares, in my view.
"Fairness", like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. For some the certainty of a cash offer would trump the possibility of share price recovery. If I wanted certainty, there's a bid of $30 for 100 lots active this morning that I could take (I'm not jumping on that, it looks to me like the equivalent of 3 cents per share. Either a bottom feeder looking for 1 cent in arbitage, or someone looking to build a position).
However, as I see it, if conditions change to the benefit of the share price, those improving conditions enhance the value of my debentures, too, so I'm hard pressed to see more value in the shares (they would have to go back over the 10 cent offer to be clearly "better" and that's a long bet in my view).
If by holding the debentures I felt I was compromising the company's cash position, I might change my mind. But, given that the company plans to meet its debenture obligations with shares that's not an issue. The question isn't will I get cash or shares in the end, it's what price to do the exchange at, and 10 cents for shares the market seems to be saying are worth 3-4 cents isn't getting me excited, to put it mildly.
One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome. I'm done betting that Mr Hansen can deliver a different outcome ... and the "patient" is looking more and more like "Terri Schaivo" to me .. (let me apologise in advance if anyone finds that reference tacky)
I don't know who is in the line ahead of the debenture holders if this does come to insolvency. Certainly the guy with ND properties pledged for security, but beyond that no other senior debt that I'm aware of and apparently no bank line. So, tradesmen and other such accounts payable, perhaps If there's something big lurking there, then the situation could be far more dire than it appears on the surface .. but if they aren't meeting day to day expenses then why continue grasping at straws?
I'm far more concerned that by eliminating the debenture debt we are just clearing the deck for them to do more deals like the ND one, pleding the remaining assets and for sure eliminating the possibility of any future recovery.
I think my last thought on the (To anyone following and tempted to just throw up their hands) is ... VOTE!! A lot of time the small interest holders just shrug figuring that the "big guys" control all the cards. This isn't investment quality debt, so there won't be any big fund managers, and I suspect it's too small to draw hedge fund interest. It only takes 1/3 of the vote to kill the deal so if they don't make quorum (25%) it's possible this could be determined by less than 8% (about 5 million face value) of the debenture holders ... That's peanuts, really. So, egardless of which way you are leaning ...VOTE ..VOTE..VOTE ...