RE:RE:RE:Mackie Research He thinks TH will make $1 in 2020 and he is lowering his target to $10.20?
How does that make sense?
With that EPS growth rate a forward PE of 10 is simply too low.
bfw
SPCEO1 wrote:
palinc2000 wrote: retiredcf wrote: Separately, Mr. Uddin and Mr. Ma downgraded Theratechnologies Inc. (TH-T) to "hold" from "buy" after lowering their sales estimates for their Egrifta and Trogarzo drugs.
"TH incurred net losses in FY2017 - and likely in FY2018 as well - as the company ramped up its preparation efforts for the Trogarzo launch," they said. "We believe the launches of Trogarzo in the U.S. and Europe should start bringing profits back to TH in 2019. Our adjusted EBITDA and fully diluted EPS forecasts for TH in Q4/FY2018 and the following years have been significantly lowered due to our reduced Egrifta and Trogarzo sales estimates."
Their target for Theratechnologies fell to $10.20 from $19.50. The average is $16.15.
Spceo
Do you know what is Mackies EPS forecast for 2019?
C$0.36 for 2019 and C$1.01 for 2020.
His numbers have been way too high for Trogarzo for a while now and needed to come down. I have not looked real closely at his past Egrifta sales expectations but he basically saaid the NASH trial may lead to off-label sales of the drug but cut his estimates anyway. I think the NASH trial could lead to a lot of on-label sales of Egrifta for patietns who have both lipodystrophy and NASH, which is likely a lot of those patients. So, don't be surprised if he is taking his Egrifta sales numbers back up once the company announces the results of the trial and how they are going to proceed with them.
I think this analyst is generally pretty good but he has a bad habit of making huge moves, both higher and lower, with his numbers which is not very helpful. And I don't think he is spending much time analyzing TH in the last six months or so and certainly fdid not think through the implications of the NASH trial results.