RE:RE:Fundamental or TechnicalOk... so now that we've had the bounce that was expected, technically, I'm looking to see it turn down again and most likely break through the $2.90 low on the next wave.
Weather dependent of course.
I will wait until momentum slows down and most likely buy HND if it feels right.
I would love to see it hit $3.59, pullback a little, then hit it again. On the second hit I would buy on the pullback, if one occurs.
I'm an OIL bear right now.
ILIKETA wrote: We are also too far away from the 20day Moving Average.
95% of the time NATGASUSD trades much closer to this then it is currently.
Once we get near it, which can only happen if we trade sideways for a long time or up for a short time, I think we will continue down.
Fundamentals could trump this technical bias though.
I'm currently betting on HDU.
ILIKETA wrote: To me, both fundamental changes (weather, inventory, etc) and technicals are equally important.
The fundamentals seem to have more weight when determining the daily direction of the move, but technicals seem to have more weight when determining how far the move goes intra day.
Just my opinion though.
Another opinion I have is, if NATGAS breaks $3.076 with some conviction it should move to $3.17 in the short term.
After $3.17 there will likel be resistance at $3.25 (50% Fib retrace from $3.59 to $2.90) and then $3.30 (61.8% Fib retrace).
There's quite a bit of near term support at $2.95, then $2.93, then $2.90.
The long term support that I think is very notable is the upward trendline of support from March 4th 2016 to July 19th 2018. It acted as support twice in September 2018 and it was support last week at $2.90.
Break this trendline and my guess is we will quickly see $2.77.