Good MorningI just finished reading last night's posts. A lot of vitriole.
I doubt any of us will know all the details of what truly happened with Altria. I sincerely hope some of this comes out in the rebuttal.
The most important point is that Vic Neufeld will be stepping down as the CEO and I am very glad of this regardless of whether it was because of health reasons, unethical or illegal double dealing, or hubris.
I saw this before with DotCom. It takes a certain type of personality to build a company and take it public. One has to have an unyielding belief in the product and how they are bringing it to market. There are some CEOs who specialize in startups, but know enough to exit stage right not long after the IPO.
WRT the stories about loss of wealth, mine is very similar. I suspect there are many more. I have come to the conclusion to remain with Aphria because the hard production metrics are still there. Indeed, like ProfC I feel very strongly that some major mistakes were made by the CEO (and executive team) that are now in the process of being corrected. In support of ProfC's claims, the fact is Vic Neufeld was both CEO and Chairman of the Board at the time. He was also on the Board of Scythian. This was far too much influence. It may have worked during the startup years, but did not have the governance necessary.
The good news is that changed last Friday.
The bad news is it also created a situation that allowed for what I now see was mostly a fraudulent short attack that has kept the value of this stock artifically depressed. Many have bought in at 8 or below, they will see a high teens (perhaps 20) offer as an easy double.
I made every mistake imaginable on this stock play...down over 700K. It chokes me up just to think about it. Didn't wipe me out, but took me from retiring this summer to staying in the workplace another 4 or 5 years. I do not feel sorry for Vic Neufeld when he states the toll this has taken on his health. In hindsight, I should have jumped when I saw some of his interviews when he spoke in "I" and "me" terms. I compare that to Bruce Linten who spoke about ensuring employees and shareholders were taken care of.
If we see the production metrics, no doubt Tilray and others do. In my view I do not believe a beverage or pharma company will risk a JV or cash inflow to Aphria. There has been too much water under the bridge and despite the steps being taken by management it will take at least six months or so to build trust. The rebuttal must come out, the CEO replaced, and better Investor Relations. What they have done is a good start.
Tilray is the obvious choice as they can pick up the assets and much needed production capacity and bury the Aphria name...and its executives. It is almost embarrassingly simple and seen as a brilliant move by the CNBC analysts. The steps are already in play with the announcement that Privateer will not be putting its shares on the market. They need the propped up share price to make a cutthroat offer (that's what Privateers' do) on a company that has suffered from a string of mismanagement of late (in terms of not getting a JV or other injection of cash).
The thing is, the executives will not want this to happen as they see more success for themselves by building up the company with the obvious production capacity and looking for a JV. So they will not put any Tilray offer to vote. That's where it gets "hostile" and Tilray goes to the shareholders with an offer. I am pretty sure 18-20 is where they will come in. Perhaps higher, but that is more wishful thinking.
I know Aphria management has begun the journey to restoring investor confidence. However, this market is rapidly expanding and the USA is ramping up. We do not have the luxury of time...neither does Tilray.
This is all just a guess. Do your own diligence. I could very well be very wrong...just like I was last Fall in believing an Altria deal was a "sure thing." There is no such thing as a sure thing.