RE:Upcoming problem...I agree with this rational but like myself, maybe just too early. What I do agree with is we reach a point where U and D can be stuck in a tighter parallel range as we transition from injection to withdraw seasons.
I expect good volatility and if D does happens to go lower next 4 weeks I think one may see gains of 40% or greater approaching June. This because production is dominant if temps remain closer to norm or are warmer in winter or cooler in May, June, July.
never rely on above to occur consistently. We can go back and pick out anomaly years for both D and U trades going against normal seasonal expectations.
This is why many lose lose huge amounts on NG trading. Never think you are smarter than the obvious strong NG trend. Just exit your trade. Why K states so many will not acknowledge a loss