Alaris Royalty Corp ALARF

Industrials Conglomerates

"Alaris Royalty Corp is engaged in investing in operating entities. Its operations consist primarily of investments in private operating entities, typically in the form of preferred limited partnership interests, preferred interest in limited liability corporations in the United States, loans receivable, or long-term license and royalty arrangements."

GREY:ALARF - Post by User

Alaris Royalty Corp > Put that in Pipe - Mickey Caph (Scotia Update)

<< Previous

Bullboard Posts

Next >>

Comment by MrEvilxon Jan 24, 2019 12:42am

288 Views

Post# 29274112

RE:RE:RE:Put that in Pipe - Mickey Caph (Scotia Update)

Also notice one more thing with Alaris. WHEN ward the last time they gave business to banks?? Any bought deals?? Any equity raises?? AD is not into a business that does frequent deals/ raises. This makes most banks less interested in AD for obvious reasons. Don't trust everything these analysts say.. GLTA

SunsetGrill wrote: Well I guess thats what makes a market!!! We will see - I think they may get there but not that soon. Either way every month i get paid to wait. Will continue to trade around my core position below $17 or so. Scotia did mention they were below concenses so obviously they have a problem with them BUT......

Capharnaum wrote:

SunsetGrill wrote: Still wanna stick with $150 Million deployment for 2019???? Still wanna stick with 80% ratio. Scotia revised 2019 deployment to 30 mill down from 43 mill. But you know more than analysts - 5x more apparently. THey have a 150 mill to deploy RIGHT. Its hard to be humble. Now lets hear how scotia is wrong blah blah blah. - maybe but not that wrong.

https://www.alarisroyalty.com/upload/media_element/attachments/274/Alaris%20Investor%20Presentation_Nov%202018.pdf

Slide #15

Total credit line capacity = $202M (CAD)

Since then they've made a $60ish investment (CAD) since then, that would reduce capacity to about $140M. If you looked at my 80% payout scenario (actually 79%), I put $100M in net investments, not $150M...

Straight from the horses mouth (aka straight from the company). That was like... super easy?

As I said, you don't believe the company (Alaris), so maybe you shouldn't invest in a company that you think lies to shareholders. If you don't think they lie, why believe the analyst over the number they provided?

Imo, stock analysts are pretty poor in general. They tend to follow the wind (or potential clients for stock/debt issuance). When a stock moves up, they'll magically raise their "multiples" which will raise the forecast stock price. It's the other way around when a stock moves down. Analysts have been wrong on deployed cash the past two years, wrong on the payout ratio, wrong about the dividend. Considering their poor track record regarding Alaris' performance, I wouldn't put my money on them suddenly being right.

Alaris has deployed, over the last five years, an average of $155M. The lowest they deployed was $108M in 2016 when the market for investment was dry (few opportunities as they said at the time). Now last quarter they re-iterated that they were in on multiple deals and demand for investment was high. Which means imo they expect another good year deployment wise. Which means that to have a net $30M investment, they would need to have large redemptions. Their largest investments are all recent and they have penalties in place for early redemptions, so it is highly unlikely.