RE:RE:RE:Trades between 2017-June and 2018-June
Some thoughts ...
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Shares have traded below a 7.5c book value since March 2018.
44M shares traded below 7.5c
25% of 175M shares
value of trades $1.5M
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1.5M/44M = 3.4c average since March 2018
3.4c/7.5c = 0.45x book
That said, it is imaginable that $1.5M of trades could bring the market price back up to a 7.5c book value. Good luck to those trading to trade in and out of the market.
(Sprott's had $8M of 30c warrants that expired worthless in October)
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I don't know the Aussie story. It is my understanding that they got 20.91M shares for $1.045M. 5c per share.
I have no idea if there was an attached holding period but I always assumed that many of those sold between 20c to 5c as the price dropped.
Any investors that decide to hold would have shares with a book value of 7.5c they got for 5c.
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44M shares is surprisingly similar to the 45.3M shares on the June 2016 balance after the $7.8M write off of the Indonesian properties raising the total deficit to $18.3M. For sake of argument I assume that all of the $18.3M deficit is available as a tax loss credit. I might be partially or entirely wrong on this point.
18.3M/45.3M = 40c tax loss credit
diluted to
18.3M/174.8M = 10.5c tax loss credit
Any sellers at 20c would have gotten fifty cents on the dollar for their 40c tax loss credits.
Any investors from back then that decided to hold would have shares with a book value of 7.5c that they got for negative cash from their Reliance position.
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the tax loss credits seem to have grown to $20M (a guess) by June 2018
20M/174.8M = 11.4c tax loss credit
My take is that every share has a 7.5c book value with an associated 11.4c tax loss credit.
Hopefully someone comes up with a more realistic number.
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Back of the envelope, Sprott Lending's 12.5c warrants might be in the money if the 11.5c credits have a 5c market value AND the market price of the shares goes back up to book value.
7.5c + 5.0c = 12.5c
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as alway just my math