RE:Debt, debt, debt...It doesn't make sense for the company to reduce debt by issuing shares until around $30/shr. At the curernt share price of $24, any issued shares cost the company $1.2 per year with the current dividend and dilute EPS (i.e. the company would effectively be paying cash at 5%, our current yield).
The average debt interest rate is 4.1%. The 3 largest debt instances are $1.1B, $3.0B, and $0.7B with interest rates of 2.2%, 3.8%, and 2.8%. The payments are so low it doesn't make sense to issue shares at a higher cost (5%).
Perhaps closer to $30-$35 a share issue would make sense to strengthen the balance sheet for eventual debt rollovers. Meanwhile the current cash flow the company generates from those senior debt differentials is awesome for shareholders.
But my guess is that a well capitalized major like Brookfield will just buy Northfield at some point anyway, probably in the $35-$38 range within 5 yrs (total return ~80% from here).
In any case the investment thesis is very strong at this price level. I doubled a previously very large position during the private placement and added more just below $24 last week.