SPCEO1 wrote: I have viewed the general NASH market as a long shot opportunity for TH, but the data appears to be so good that it is defintely in play. On the 4Q18 conference call, Marsolais mentioned it. Then I believe it was you that parsed out that it was in the press release as well. So, perhaps the whole NASH market will be in play for TH. To get there, however, you have to resove the patent issue, at elast as it relates to the US market. TH can pursue the European NASH market and get 10 years of marketing protection with any Egrifta formulation they would use. Which, by the way, not a single analyst has noted in their reports when questioning the relevance of the NASH data based on patent issues. If all we got out of this NASH study was the european NASH market for 10 years, the stock should be soaring.
But of course, we can get sales right awway, without any regualtory authority saying r doing anything, from US patients willing to pay cash for the drug and, more importantly, from lipo patients who also have NAFLD/NASH since these can get reimbursed right now. Like today if their doctor wanted to do it.
So, every single analyst added nothing to their valuation for TH based on the NASH results even though the results were great, there are instant opportunities to make money from it (admittedly not huge opportunities) and a strong possibility that they have the best drug so far for NASH in the general population out there at the moment. These analysts need to ask questions of patent experts and think thru what the company's options might be on the patent front rather than just throw up a red flag on the patent front without thinking it through. That, my friends, is bad analysis, especially when MDGL has a $2 billion market cap and all they have is a drug with not quite as good results just now entering phase III.
It will take some time to get to the promised land but those results were great and even without the general NASH market, the HIV NASH market is hardly a niche. There are plenty of ways to win with these NASH results and the company just has to sort them all out.
bfw wrote: I’m not really following you here.
It is clear that some analysts will not buy in to the story if TH does not tell us there is an option to extend the patent or use another formulation. Do you think the competitors would be generic drug makers looking to produce Egrifta?
My thought would be that you would have another already patent protected formulation that you would use in a large Phase 3 for the general NASH market.
The HIV NASH market would remain niche and I don’t think a generic drug maker would go to the trouble or making Egrifta only for the HIV market.
bfw
jfm1330 wrote: No! This is the last thing they should do. It's a highly strategic information. The last thing you want to do is to tell potential competitors something like that.
bfw wrote:
They should also update on us patent extension possibilities vs different formulations.