RE:RE:RE:A good laugh before the weekendOk, that’s an important point.
I’m not a great “accountant” but you seem good with numbers.
I had a look at JAZZ again for fun.
Revenues around $2 Billion. Market cap around $8 Billion. So 4 times revenue.
They break down cost of product sales as only 5.6% of revenue. However, they have selling, G&A and R&D at another 46% of sales.
For TH...cost of sales was $6 million (or 40% of sales). R&D was $2.5 million (17% sales). Selling and marketing was $5.4 million (33% of sales) and G&A was $1.5 million (10% sales).
Interesting as clearly we need to see a big ramp in sales and a clamp on costs if we are going to compare ourselves to a company like JAZZ and look for a similar multiple.
Upon reflection of these numbers, I think TH needs to change the view of their company in the market place entirely. It also speaks to the importance of next Thursday and European approval of Trogarzo as we’ve spent $$$ there.
They need to go from just a growing specialty pharma to a specialty pharma with significant upside from NASH and cancer (not giving up on Katana just yet). Revenue potential in the Billions needs to be thrown out there for F8. New cancer data alluded to needs to be clearly elucidated with regards to upside.
We need to get some speculative money in to this name if we are going to see significant upside in the share price.
bfw
palinc2000 wrote: Bfw
Your multiple of sales analysis omits the fact that normally in big pharmas like Gilead for example Cost of Goods Sold is low double digits (10–15%)whereas with Trogarzo we are in the 52% range not counting milestones payments.If all of our sales were just Egrifta then the sales multiples analysis would make sense
quote=bfw]
I’m at a bit of a loss on this one.
So, peak sales of Trogarzo are $250 million.
Let’s say Egrifta shows normal growth (unreasonable assumption but work with me) then it would be $50 million at least.
So, $300 million in peak sales.
Market cap at $10 is maybe $800 million fully diluted (prob less).
Let’s forget the cash as they’ll have to pay off the deal if SP is still low.
So, Market cap is 2.66x peak sales?!?
Some pharma companies go for 8 times peak sales.
I think TH should be valued at 5 times peak sales at least.....market cap of $1.5 Billion or target price of $20 in a couple years.
That is a conservative target.
$10 does not make sense to me....
SPCEO....it may be time to make another spreadsheet to show the impact of increased Egrifta scripts on revenue and the bottom line.
If Luc is willing to add 2 MSL’s, I suspect with F4 and the new marketing campaign that we will see a 25%+ increase in Egrifta scripts by the end of the year.
bfw
juniper88 wrote: Especially line about "baked in..." I almost fell of my chair
| Analyst Actions: RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform, $10 TP on Theratechnologies |
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02:03 PM EDT, 04/05/2019 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital has reiterated its Sector Perform rating and $10 TP on Theratechnologies. The Trogarzo launch continues to exhibit steady growth, and RBC says it sees peak out-year sales of ~$250 million. The brokerage added that Egrifta sales were also stable q-o-q, with recent NAFLD data potentially augmenting TH's relaunch strategy that could bolster life cycle and revenue in the medium-term. "Overall, we continue to believe Trogarzo and Egrifta should continue to grow, but with peak opportunities mostly baked into shares at current levels." (TH reported Trogarzo revenues of $6.1 million, slightly above RBC's $5.4 million est. Egrifta sales of $9.0 million were essentially flat q-o-q and below RBC's $10.1 million estimate.) |
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