RE:RE:RE:Here it isThe entire sector ex US companies moved up significantly on Friday, on the understanding that with section 232 out of the way contracting can move forward.
US companies will benefit from the rise in prices just as much as Canadian, Australian, etc.
URE and EFR hadn't been radically marked up in price on expectation of a positive section 232 outcome yet were radically marked down on rumor of a negative outcome.
The reaction in price was more what you see when a mining company is denied a critical permit, or has property in a foreign country nationalized, or when a drug company has a fatality in testing of its hot new drug. That is to say, it was way overdone, both price and volume.
This makes me think it was an intentionally driven stampede and corresponding transfer of ownership. I think this process has woken up a few very wealthy people who would not normally waste their time on such a small, illiquid sector, but who see extraordinary opportunity for really outsized profits here. Problem being 'how do you get a big enough position to make it worthwhile without driving the price up'? Section 232, the delay in ruling and the 'negative' outcome (or the statement of it as such, without context) provided that opportunity - first in the international sector as prices across the sector drifted lower, then yesterday in a big way for the US companies.
That said, technical damage was huge so I doubt there'll be a big one day recovery. My personal bet is gap down Monday morning, sell off maybe another 10 - 20% then recover to 2.60ish, then a few weeks sideways downdrift eating into the 90 day window and normalizing the new price level. Then sometime before 90 days a 'positive announcement' from the working group that causes the vertical spike and kicks off the bull market for the whole sector (I expect the rest of the sector has already kicked off). Probably a great opportunity for anybody with cash the the ability to sit still for 90 days.