This is how I see things
1- Whole Mj sector is tanking.
2- If you are scared well unless your name is CannTrust there's no horror story, it's just a nasty annoying cycle of mj stocks getting beaten.
3- Aphria had bad Q results last Q because of asset impairement + mother plant strategy to plant full crop rotation the recent license that brings Aphria to 115 000 kg.
4- I think its normal we are waiting alot of time for a 140 000 kg license (Aphria Diamond) no company is fully licensed on the square feet they claim to have capacity and HC system is a mess.
5- The -20% drop from bad Q results + a 10% drop from the convertible notes =30% would bring us to 9$, Share price was like 13$ before Q results if my memory is good.
6- With Edibles rollout I doubt we will be in a oversupply situation and this is where we really start to hurt the black market and reach more customers so I really doubt the oversupply situation. If it happens Apha can be really competitive and lower their price but more importantly the presence they have in Germany and LATAM.
7- With CC Pharma and on a long term EU GMP certification for all the Aphria capacity (thats a very long term maybe 1 year from now) the market in Germany is 5B$ medical.
8- Didn't follow 2 much but from my understanding LATAM is slowly but surely gonna be a good solution for oversupply.
9- After another little slow growth in sales to be able to plant full crop rotation the 255 000 kg and with the extraction center online, The growth will continue and we will improve Q after Q after Q (unless edibles launch is horrible and oversupply which I highly doubt).
10- I really doubt the big pharmas, beverages, alcohol or whatever you wanna call them are gonna give the whole market to Altria and Constellations brands and given the beaten mj sector right now and the launch for edibles soon, this could be a great opportunity for those big companies to take a stake.
11- That's how investing goes, you can pull the trigger or wait and collect the fruits of patience, rather take a high risk for a potential high reward then have all my money sleeping in my bank account, Couche tard and Imperial tobbaco got in the game, not a big amount of $$$ like Constellations/Altria but still , I think its a good sign. Aphria growth not priced in there's only upside when you look at fundamentals.
12- No one like reds but you can't time the market and the current share price makes no sense at all.
Cheers