RE:RE:RE:Well, at least it's October - Historically Strong seasonallyI have been topping up a little recently too.
It's a tough pill to swallow of course as my average cost is closer to $4.00 but I am betting this is a solid return.
Case 1. Short-term Upside: $2.00 to $4.00 per share. Basically the '10x unicorn'. I think this is 60%
Based on:
1) Deleveraging the McK mill
2) Lumber staying where it is now, at $US 397. This is a great price BTW. If we stay at this level, Q4 will be solid as the US operations will make at least 20% margins at this level I suspect.
3) Creditors playing ball with Conifex
In short, all possilbe. I think Sheilds being a finance guy with connections, in a tight-knit industry, will see something happen. Even if it's the 'bank of Canfor' which has happened before.
Case 2: purgetory remains. 20%. No change we just slough though.
Case 3: 20%. Bad stuff, the guys can't sell or make a deal and the creditors take a f**ing haircut in a fire sale. They are not gonna want to do that. They also need CFF as a going concern.
So, back of napkin I am buying now because (1000% * 0.6) + (0% * 0.2) + (-100% * 0.2) is a decent retern all equal.