RE:Let's hope that Canopy and Aurora financials are decent
I'm typically a glass half full type, but that doesn't mean my eyes aren't open. The corporate update was a mixed bag.
Either investors were being fed bullsh** during the last few months, herd behaviour of analysts was on full display (i.e., most increasing price target), the company hoodwinked analysts and investors alike (how do you explain discrepancy between16.3m revenue and a 27.9m Street revenue projection?) or ... results were not entirely company specific but more driven by soft market and hardly any stores serving the entire province of Ontario, and not much better retail access in certain other provinces.
This much is clear: analysts once again over reacting to the downside, just as they did on the upside projections so, other than looking to analysts to assist with interpreting the release, I wouldn't give much value to their targets.
IMO, the release was intended to soften the blow, and timed to release before other ER releaases so attention would quickly shift away from OGI, and onto other LPs with underwhelming results. We'll see if this plays out this week. On the upside, cultivation costs reduced and market share increasing. Downside, we don't have a clear statement from management to the future, i.e., " The Company believes it is neither possible nor prudent to provide any further guidance given the dynamic forces and uncertainty in the industry today." They are hedging their bets with this statement. That said, it's likely a wise statement and applicable to all other LPs.
This, and other LPs, are now a "show me" story. And so far OGI hasn't delivered ... or, they mismanaged analyst/investor expectations (how else are we to understand Cronos 12.7m revenue vs OGI at 16.3m)?
My hope is that there is more strategy to this release. The strategy being: release the sh*t news now, take the lumps and reduce expectations, and in two weeks when ER is released, the public learns of (1) impressive cost reductions and market share growth - both of which are heavily emphasized in the corporate update. As we all know, hope isn't a strategy for investors. Let's see what happens on the 25th.