RE:First Forest Product Stock Ever BoughtNice to have you aborad. This is not a stock for the timid but your analyis is right on.
I was pleased by the tone of the call last week. I don't have a trascript, but you can dial into the replay here:
The call will also be available on instant replay access until December 16, 2019. For Instant Replay Access, please dial one of the following numbers and enter Participant Pass Code 7915218#. Toll-Free Access: 800-408-3053 Access: 905-694-9451
For context, buying 10,00 shares is like 0.022% of the whole company. Not bad. Based on them ending up with maybe 700,000 million feet of capacity that's like haveing your own claim on 0.022% of that so 152,000 FBM (152 MFBM) a year. It costs $500/MFBM to build a mill in $US, so that stake is worth $76,000 notionally, not adjusting for debt.
This is a smart calcuated risk; with asymetric upside. Based on the call they are fine. Dial in see for yourself. Kenny makes 5 points as to why the worst is over and they are back on track.