RE:THE DIFFERENTIATION OF WEED FROM OTHER LP'S While I agree with your analysis and assumptions at a high level, I do think that the industry still is going hand in hand to a great extent and it will continue to do so until Canopy (and some other big ones) establish itself with the performance that separates it.
For now Canopy is little different in terms of the cash in hand and their partnerships. But as you know, still it's not enough to convice the market forces to just depend on them disregarding peers and industry.
The other reason is that there are many unkowns in the industry. The other day Mark Z. explained in an interview the fact that triggered the high level of returns of their oil and gel that was one of the issues in last Q financials. He said it was not actually bad products or customers did not like it, it was that they overestimated the market. Most returns came from wholsesale, not from the ultimate customers. Point is because of lack of information and stats, everything can be underestimated or overestimated at this point.
Plus the regulatory issues affect everyone incl. Canopy, so as market.
So in my opinion, until Canopy does really well in terms of top line and bottom line and regulatory stuff gets settled to a great extent, Canopy, its peers and industry will continue to react in the same way but as you correctly said, the degree of reaction may be different.
Anyway, hope things will get better soon.
Starsearcher80 wrote: I've commented that we are going to be seeing a shift into LP's that have true 2.0 potential, and I don't think there's a better candidate out there than Canopy.
So when do we start seeing that differentiation? Well, I think we are starting to see the first glimpse of it NOW.
Let's take a look at the past few days using a comparison of ACB and WEED.
The low close for Aurora a few days back was $3.00. The high close a few days later was $4.14, a gain of 38%. Since then, through to today, the stock has given back quite a bit, with the stock now only 6. 66% above the $3.00 low close. OUCH!
The low close for Canopy a few days back was $18.78 . The high close a few days later was $27.03, a gain of 44 %. Since then, through to today, the stock has given back some, with the stock now 28% above the low close.
Take another look at the numbers. This is NOT a case of the LP's moving together. I think what we are starting to see is a repositioning OUT of LP's that are primarily 1.0 bound, and into LP's with strong 2.0 potential.
I think we will continue to see Canopy forge their own upside price pattern going foward, and I think deservedly so. As for the LP's that are primarily 1.0 bound, I expect their gains to be much more tepid and or languish.