RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Nice to know...HawkII wrote: SUMKNDV1DERFL wrote: Also, BNN had this to say today...
U.S. CBD forecasts may need to be dialed back somewhat after FDA statement The future of the U.S. cannabidiol – better known as CBD – market may be less rosy than previously expected after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s statement that it cannot conclude the cannabis compound’s safety in human or animal food products. Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett said “bullish forecasts” on the U.S. CBD market should be toned down, with his firm now projecting CBD retail sales should reach US$3.5 billion by 2022 compared to estimates that reached as high as US$22 billion. Bennett added in his note that while the FDA hasn’t finalized its decision on CBD regulation, its statement does signal that its approach is likely to be stringent. It’s also an opportunity for Canadian cannabis companies, which are often better capitalized than their U.S. counterparts, will be better equipped to satisfy tough FDA requirements. Meanwhile, the popularity of CBD products led Wisconsin to sign a new law that opens the U.S. state to (possibly) becoming a major hemp producer Seems that they believe the stringent FDA regs to come in the US may be favourable to Canadian regulated companies.
Forgot to mention, Jefferies analysts are generally known to have some of the highest estimates on the street. If I'm not mistaken, they just took down 2022 CBD retail sales estimates by a stunning 84% to $3.5bn. Rule of thumb is that Canada is 1/10th the size of the US, so ballpark Canada CBD retail market is $350mm. Beverage sales as a % of retail sales in mature mkts of Cali or Colorado are maybe 5% so we're now looking at $17.5mm total potential beverage market in Canada but lets assume 10% or $35mm cause we all know Cdns can drink. If MH gets 10% of that market (so twice what they have in beer), we're looking at $3.5mm in annual sales. That's for the JV. So 50% of that net to SPR against a $42mm mkt cap?? Time is running out ... they better announce co-packer, patents, provincial supply agreements, financing, JV finalization, ANYTHING and soon.
I agree that SPR needs to get moving on many unresolved issues and believe that they are working diligently to do so. I also agree that many if not all MJ revenue forecasts are over estimated by analysts, even of those with better history and clout. However, you are again spewing numbers and stats based on US data. Just because the US numbers have longer running stats, you cannot use that data and plug in the Canadian market reducing the population to fit your figures. The Canadian MJ market is a totally different ball game. Your forecast is invalid because your figures are not relevant to that of the Canadian market. With little more than a years worth of data on the Canadian cannabis industry, it is extremely challenging for analysts to forecast a market with such a dynamic expansion. It is continuously changing as it is growing. First flower, oil and now edibles. This is why analysts continuously miss the mark. We will see better forecasts in the coming years when appropriate Canadian market data can be amassed.
As for now and of Oct 31st, 2020 revenue from the Canadian cannabis market is forecasted to reach 3.16 billion(links below). Of that 3.16B, 20-30% is allotted to cannabis beverages. This is significantly more than the US and your figures. Rightfully so as the US has yet to master a good tasting, consistent, high quality product that will appeal to consumers and fly off the shelves. The Canadian beverage producers will the cutting edge leaders in this space. Intro, SPR tech. I’ll let you calculate 20-30% of 3.16B... did you see the difference between your invented formula and the actual analytically calculated Canadian forecast. :-) Yes yes, over estimated forecast probably, but that’s more accurate still than your invalid figures. It is the best we have to work with at the moment.
If SPR captures even 2-3 % of that estimated 20-30%, I would be very content not to mention even more financially comfortable than today. I wouldn’t blame you if you jumped in now that you have realized the figures.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sales-in-canada-s-pot-sector-forecast-to-hit-3-16b-in-2020-amid-slower-growth-canaccord-1.1340822