GREY:NMKEF - Post by User
Post by
Charleneon Dec 17, 2019 3:59pm
195 Views
Post# 30465361
Chance of deal
Chance of dealIf the deal goes through, we should atleast expect a price of $0.40/share (I think it is higher). If it doesn't go through, lets say we are looking at a price of $10/share. Then the current price should reflect that:
Current share price = (chance of deal)* (0.40/share)+ (chance of no deal)* (0.10/share)
With the current price of $.15/share, we get:
0.15/share = (chance of deal)* (0.40/share) + (1- chance of deal)* 0.10/share
chance of deal = 0.17 or 17%
This is laughable given the current public information. Share price is driven by fear and short-sellers. This is steal at the current price (IMO).