RE:RE:Hubris I'd argue that nearly any direct investment into the equity markets is an act of hubris. One of the first things you must do to perform well in the market over decades is admit to yourself that when you make an investment, you're relying on your personal skill, experience and knowledge with an expectation of beating the market. This isn't true with every strategy, but it is certainly true for anyone invested in the Cannabis industry.
It greatly disappoints me to hear that people are so easily talked into action by some random folks on a random forum. That said, what price were we at when they wanted to cut their losses? Cutting your losses is always an important part of risk management, and that in-and-of itself doesn't really mean anything, especially if it's part of your strategy. I'd personally rather somebody cut their losses and generate a return somewhere else until a company like Supreme has confirmed a turn-around in the trend. It's difficult to have this kind of foresight however, and the time to sell and buy back Supreme lower has very likely passed.
Maybe it's not as clear a result as I see it, but this is why I think it's important to acknowledge the hubris it takes to pick stocks. Once you acknowledge that your goal is to outperform the market, you don't have to worry and rely on what others have to say. You can rely on your hubris, come to understand it better over time and develop successful strategies. You will always perform better by focusing on yourself than you will by focusing on others. All this other information is just data to help you build your self. Whether it's FUD on a forum, or some guy talking you into hodling strong, it's all just information you must filter through your sense of self, your knowldege, experience and goals to try and come to a result.
I appreciate the response, and I agree that needing to dig through posts has become a bit tiresome. I can't disagree with the opinion that the behavior by a very small minority is hardly even human (animals). That does not mean, however, that I'm going to sacrifice my civility and jump in to fling feces around the room with them.
I don't see Brent's behavior the same way that some of you do, and it's not at all fair to blame just one person for the endless bickering that happens here. From my perspective, it's been a lot of Supreme longs that have kept the storm going and often feel the need to get the last word in and always remind people how golden Supreme is. I have no problem with the back-and-forth, but it's too much when things degrade to the point that we no longer have the patience to show eachother respect and resort to made-up slurs.
When you get tired of something, or someone, you start to lose respect for them, you see them as animals, you start lumping them together, you make assumptions and start putting words in their mouth. This is what I've seen happening ad-nauseam. All it takes is one short response from Vulcan that is riddled with assumptions and fallacies and now if Brent wants to even bother responding, he has a whole gamut of things he must clear up. This is often not Brent's fault, and I don't know how some of you see it as so.
Back on the topic hubris, there are plenty of lessons here for Supreme investors. If you bought before Supreme ever hit its peak at ~$2, you likely had gains anywhere from 2X-10X. What do you think it takes to hold a stock after it's doubled in ~6 months, expecting more gains? Or after it went nearly 10X if you include the year before that? You must acknowledge the risk and never be shy about taking a big WIN and some profits, so it takes hubris.
What do you think it takes to buy into the rally after it's gone that far? It's already hyped up and overvalued, but you think you can beat the market by buying (or holding) into the rally, so it takes hubris.
What do you think it takes to try and catch (or hang on to) a falling knife? You've come to the conclusion that the equity is undervalued, oversold and that a turnaround is likely or innevitable, so it takes hubris. There is always risk with any investment in any market. No matter the case, it's an act of hubris to evaluate the risk & reward and to say to yourself, "I can beat the market if I buy this." Nevermind the fact that when you actually calculate returns on a risk-adjusted basis that many of us here likely don't perform quite as well as we like to think.
You can only protect yourself from these risks when you acknowledge the conditions that made you think your investment would outperform the market. Inequality in the market stems from differing access to information, so as an investor attempting to preserve your capital and maximize your return, you must remain aware and flexible so you can realize when the initial conditions for your investment are no longer true. You must regularly re-evaluate your position, your strategy and consider if it's living up to your expectations.
Personally, I consider my biggest failures to be the same type of situation some here have ended up with with Supreme. There's not much that aches more than taking a risky investment and to be stuck holding and hoping to make your money back. You can only rectify this by sticking to your strategy and respecting your hubris. No matter if the price has gone up or down, if your goals have been met or the weight of the conditions has changed, get out. The price will always be irrational and you must use that to your advantage.
Next time you come across a FIRE, and you don't think the price works in favor of your strategy, MOVE ON. There is no shortage of fires in any market and you don't need to jump in and get yourself burned. I shift my bag of equities worth paying attention to regularly based on what direction they've been going. I have faith in my strategy, but price is irrational and I'll wait for the next opportunity that works to my benefit. I barely missed out on TSLA under $200 and couldn't pull the trigger over $200 after we bottomed out. Oops, my mistake. It hurts a lot less to miss out on an opportunity than it does to accept a loss of equal scale. I like TSLA, but I never even looked at it when it was still double that price. There's no reason to get caught up in the hype.
If your thesis and your strategy are strong, then there's almost nothing better than holding losses. Maintain your confidence and seek even better returns. If you were respectful of your hubris and of the market, you would only buy a minimal position when FIRE is pushing new highs, just to get some skin in the game. If you lose a bit, it's not going to hurt your portfolio, and if you miss out, so be it. Depending on your strategy, you can really take advantage of this as it gets cheaper, and cheaper and cheaper.
You can certainly put more effort into maximizing your protection against risk, but at the very least, it might be a benefit for some to start small and focus on slowly growing a position over time. You must always recognize the short-comings of your strategy, acknowledge your inadequacies and protect yourself from the unexpected.
It's clear what advantages Supreme has built, but that doesn't mean anything if they can't execute on them. It means even less if investors aren't buying it and the price continues to drop, no matter how good they try to make it look. Even if the next ER beats expectations on rev/sales, that in-of-itself isn't a guarantee that price will go up. A revision down on guidance, announcement of more funding or even more change-up in management could still trigger more selling, but eventually, if things remain on track, investors will run out of reasons to sell-off and cut their losses. I'm making no statement on the likelyhood of these things happening, but anything is always possible.
The only thing for investors to do right now, if you see value in the company, is to simply wait for Supreme to prove themselves to the market. It's a great time to buy if you respect your hubris and protect yourself from further risk in the way that suits you best.
We all should enjoy what's left of our weekend because it's a big week ahead,
Sincerely,
-Dubby