(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s fossil-fuel emissions probably will decline less sharply than targeted by 2030, a blow to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s pledge slash pollution in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Carbon emissions in Germany may decline by 51% by 2030, short of the target of 55%, the Environment Ministry in Berlin said on Thursday, citing the latest official forecast.

Two years ago, Merkel said the nation faced a “last chance” this decade to get CO2 reductions back in line with the Paris deal, where all nations promised to rein in pollutants damaging the atmosphere.

The forecast, which was prepared by the Freiburg-based Oeko-Institute, showed gaps emerging between government goals on CO2 and each of the five main economic sectors.

Germany is Europe’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. It needs to slash 70 million tons more of CO2 emissions in all to meet its 2030 target, the institute data showed.

 

Germany is already failing to reach its goal for this year of reducing CO2 by 40% from 1990 levels. It along with other European Union nations is working goal of zeroing out emissions by 2050.

Merkel’s vow set in motion a sweeping package of climate protection measures that passed into law last year. The centerpiece of the “Climate Protection Plan 2030” steps included introduction of a CO2 price on heating and transport fuels and incentives to boost electric car registrations to 10 million vehicles by 2030.

The Oeko-Institute forecast published Thursday shows that the transport sector will account for about half or 33 million tons of CO2 that Germany needs to cut to meet its 2030 target.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net, Jonathan Tirone

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