RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Penalty 20mm oem40 mYou are right. This is the biggest risk to the transaction.
But with the circumstances at the moment with the coronavirus, I don't know why Marc Garneau would impose conditions. It will be easier for the government to bailout 1 company instead of 2. Air Canada will be able to save a lot of money with synergies.
I know Air Canada management has connections with the liberals, but with the mess that happened to SNC I don't think the liberals want to do shady things. The easiest thing would be to accept the transaction and give air canada, west jet and the rest of the industries loans and tax breaks. AIr Canada and Transat have a lot of cash.
The transaction makes perfect sense for Air Canada and if they can get the liquidity they will make a lot of money in the future with Air Transat. With Air Transat liquidities, I think the odds are in favour of the Air Transat Shareholders at the moment and the $6 price is ridiculous.
The price of the share reflects that Air Transat will not be able to fly for another 4 months. If it's only until the end of April, we are fine.