RE:RE:Trying to understand the cancer opportunityI can only share what I know about ovarian cancer. First line right now is surgery followed by carboplatin/taxol. Some patients will then receive a maintenance treatment like Avastin or a parp inhibitor like olaparib. Eventually the patient relapses and if still sensitive more carboplatin/taxol, otherwise second line chemos. Virtually everyone relapses. The 5 year survival rate is 28%, 10 year survival is 5%. Only 70% of patients initially respond to carboplatin/taxol. Only 30% after a relapse. So, the question is where does Thera's new method of delivery fit in? How long will a patient stay in remission. What % of patients will it work for. And if a patient relapses after treatment with Thera's new method what rate of patients will respond again. All these factors will determine how many prescriptions will be written. If this really works then a lot more testing will be done for many different scenarios. Btw, the above is only for high grade serous ovarian cancer.
SPCEO1 wrote: I am not giving TH any value for cancer yet and thus I have not spent any time on this yet. But I think your approach may not be correct. I think the goal would be to take a decent market share of the whole ovarian cancer and/or triple negative breast cancer markets.
qwerty22 wrote: Just some numbers I uncovered I don't know the full relevance.
There is a taxane called paclitaxel, there are two versions on the market, Generic paclitaxel and protein bound paclitaxel. The protein bound version is called Abraxane and is owned by Celgene. Abraxane has a better safety/tolerability profile.
The 2016 Medicaid numbers are available for both drugs.
Abraxane has 890 claims for total cost of $5.5 million
Generic paclitaxel has 1666 claims at a cost of $173,000
My maths puts Abraxane at 60x more expensive but still capturing 1/3 of the market.
Total annual sales of Abraxane was $900 million in 2014 and Celgene bought the right in 2010 for $2.9 billion from Abraxis.
Havent yet worked out the relative market positions of paclitaxel and docetaxel but I think it shows the potential in a safer chemo. Docetaxel does have branded versions (taxotere) but I don't believe these branded versions have any superiority over the generics. Taxotere is made by Sanofi and had $200 million global sales in 2017.